12 ways the world may end. Which is your money on?

From an Oxford University report via Financial Times. Howard related since Beth brought the apocalypse to the show.
Unknown consequences
A catch-all category to cover the unknown unknowns — an amalgamation of all the risks that we have not thought of or that seem ridiculously unlikely in isolation (such as sending signals to extraterrestrial civilisations that attract deadly alien attention). Together they represent a significant apocalyptic threat.
Probability: 0.1%


Asteroid impact
An asteroid at least 5km across — big enough to end civilisation, if not wipe out human life — hits Earth about once every 20 million years. But programs to map hazardous objects are making progress and, given enough warning, a concerted effort by the world’s space powers might succeed in deflecting an incoming asteroid on to a non-collision path.
Probability: 0.00013%


Artificial intelligence
AI is the most discussed apocalyptic threat at the moment. But no one knows whether there is a real risk of extreme machine intelligence taking over the world and sweeping humans out of their way. The study team therefore gives a very wide probability estimate.
Probability: 0-10%


Supervolcano
An eruption ejecting thousands of cubic kilometres of material into the atmosphere — far larger than anything experienced in human history — could lead to a “volcanic winter”, with effects similar to an asteroid impact or nuclear war. Such events are known from the geological record to have caused mass extinctions. And with today’s technology, there is not much we could do to prevent its effects.
Probability: 0.00003%


Ecological collapse
A full collapse of the global ecosystem, so that the planet could no longer sustain a population of billions, is one of the most complex risks in the study. Because many unknown sequences would be involved, the team does not even guess at a probability.
Probability: n/a


Bad global governance
This category covers mismanagement of global affairs so serious that it is the primary cause of civilisation collapse (rather than a secondary response to other disasters). One example would be the emergence of an utterly incompetent and corrupt global dictatorship. The probability is impossible to estimate.
Probability: n/a


Global system collapse
This means economic and/or societal collapse, involving civil unrest and a breakdown of law and order that makes the continuation of civilised life impossible anywhere on Earth. There are too many unknowns to give a probability estimate.
Probability: n/a


Extreme climate change
Conventional modelling of climate change induced by human activity (adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere) has focused on the most likely outcome: global warming by up to 4C. But there is a risk that feedback loops, such as the release of methane from Arctic permafrost, could produce an increase of 6C or more. Mass deaths through starvation and social unrest could then lead to a collapse of civilisation.
Probability: 0.01%


Nuclear war
A nuclear war between the US and Russia was the chief apocalyptic fear of the late 20th century. That threat may have reduced but, with proliferation of nuclear weapons, there is still a risk of a conflict serious enough to cause a “nuclear winter” as a pall of smoke in the stratosphere shuts out sunlight for months. That could put an end to civilised life regardless of the bombs’ material impact.
Probability: 0.005%


Global pandemic
An apocalyptic disease would combine incurability (like Ebola), lethality (like rabies), extreme infectiousness (like the common cold) and a long incubation period (like HIV/Aids). If such a virus spread around the world before people were aware of the danger, the international health system would have to move with unprecedented speed and resources to save mankind.
Probability: 0.0001%


Synthetic biology
Genetic engineering of new super-organisms could be enormously beneficial for humanity. But it might go horribly wrong, with the emergence and release, accidentally or through an act of war, of an engineered pathogen targeting humans or a crucial part of the global ecosystem. The impact could be even worse than any conceivable natural pandemic.
Probability: 0.01%


Nanotechnology
Ultra-precise manufacturing on an atomic scale could create materials with wonderful new properties but they could also be used in frightening new weapons. There is also the “grey goo” scenario of self-replicating nanomachines taking over the planet.
Probability: 0.01%

 

extreme climate change.

 

Boredom from reading lists.

Probabilty: 100%

 

Holy crap!!! We are as good as dead!!!
But then there has never been a species since the beginning that has survived.
And we are the only ones trying deperately to hasten our own demise.
We dont like each other very much and this forum is proof of that.

 

i don't think it will be artificial intelligence: I know many of the people writing this stuff and i know that they use agile coding to deliver 20% of what is promised, and then refactor the other 80% over time. They rarely achieve even 50% of the features they promise before the entire system is due to be redesigned and replaced (which, by the way, you can thank Bill Gates for). I don't believe they can deliver a system that remains functional without manual maintenance long enough to do significant damage. I will never allow a financial system to authenticate me by shining a laser into my eyes for the same reason: i know the quality of the people who write these systems.

 

I dont think it will be bad global governance simply because we have never had good global governance so you really can't get worse than none.

 

i think we will probably have another significant meteor above air burst (like the Tunguska air burst) within the next 100 years. I dont think it will cause an extinction event, but i think it will cause a significant re-distribution and population decrease due to the nuclear winter it promotes for a few years.

 

I do think we are asking for trouble by sending signals into space inviting others to come and rape us.

 

Being destroyed from within.

 

Most likely we will all die before some cataclysmic event, so who cares. But my money is on global warming, Al Gore told me so.

 

all of the above.
this thing needs a poll at the top

 

It would suck if a member here came up with a thread on how to save the world from imminent disaster and nobody saw it because he/she was blocked.

 

20mm years between asteroid impacts is a long time. Modern humans have only been around for 200,000 years. My guess is a global pandemic or climate change. Not in our lifetime but in the next few thousand years.

 

the odds of anyone here having that info, is probably infinitely smaller than the chances that such a person would be blocked by everyone.

 

Do not underestimate Schmoopy

 

recently the calculations were adjusted and it is estimated that a rock only 100ft in diameter (like the size of a football field) is all that would be needed to cause an areal burst that would do the same damage as in Tunguska. it used to be thought that the rock would have to be at least 5 miles in diameter to do that kind of damage, and that 5 mile rocks only hit once every 100,000 years but a 100ft rock hits at least every 100 years and a Tunguska type burst would take out one or more states depending upon where it happens without actually impacting the planet. if something like that occurred over any major city on the planet, the automated systems would launch the nukes since the damage and electrical signature of a nuke and an areal burst are similar.

 

My guess is when Beth tours a U.S. nuclear launch facility and asks while pressing a huge red button...."What does this button do?"

 

the only way it should end

 

The suspense is(n't) killing me.

 

I am betting on Justin Bieber impregnating a Kardashian/Jenner and spawning the Anti-Christ who will bring the end of the world.