Politics 538: Democrats Should Panic … If The Polls Still Look Like This In A Week

Discussion in 'The Howard Stern Show' started by dawg, Sep 18, 2016.

  1. dawg

    dawg In The Dog House Staff Member

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    election_update_shift_neutral.jpg

    Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls has been declining for several weeks, and now we’re at the point where it’s not much of a lead at all. National polls show Clinton only 1 or 2 percentage points ahead of Donald Trump, on average. And the state polling situation isn’t really any better for her. On Thursday alone, polls were released showing Clinton behind in Ohio, Iowa and Colorado — and with narrow, 3-point leads in Michigan and Virginia, two states once thought to be relatively safe for her.

    It’s also become clearer that Clinton’s “bad weekend” — which included describing half of Trump supporters as a “basket of deplorables” on Friday, and a health scare (followed by news that she had been diagnosed with pneumonia) on Sunday — has affected the polls. Prior to the weekend, Clinton’s decline had appeared to be leveling off, with the race settling into a Clinton lead of 3 or 4 percentage points. But over the past seven days, Clinton’s win probability has declined from 70 percent to 60 percent in our polls-only forecast and by a similar amount, from 68 percent to 59 percent, in our polls-plus forecast.

    That’s not to imply the events of the weekend were necessarily catastrophic for Clinton: In the grand scheme of things, they might not matter all that much (although polling from YouGov suggests that Clinton’s health is in fact a concern to voters). But when you’re only ahead by 3 or 4 points, and when some sequence of events causes you to lose another 1 or 2 points, the Electoral College probabilities can shift pretty rapidly. A lot of light blue states on our map have turned pink, meaning that Trump is now a narrow favorite there instead of Clinton:

    nate-update-ss.png


    Much more on this

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-if-the-polls-still-look-like-this-in-a-week/
     
  2. VarmintSam

    VarmintSam Well-Known Member VIP Gold

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    Omg Dawg :wub:
     
  3. rolltide

    rolltide Well-Known Member VIP

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    My vote for Trump is my "thank you" to all those progressive millennials that gave me Obama.......gud yontiff

    :artiejj:
     
  4. JameGumb

    JameGumb We're all out of toner!

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    Karma for screwing Bernie over. Hillary couldn't get over her "ITS MY TURN" mentality. If Trump wins, it's her fault.
     
  5. VarmintSam

    VarmintSam Well-Known Member VIP Gold

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    That beach house they bribed him with was very nice of them.
     
  6. LonghornJ

    LonghornJ VIP Extreme Gold

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    Dems should be concerned that they hitched their wagon to a feeble, crippled, entitled old bitch that hasn't lived in the real world since 1992
     
  7. JameGumb

    JameGumb We're all out of toner!

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  8. freds

    freds you broke it VIP

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    and Donald? :jj:
     
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  9. Ta Ta Toothy

    Ta Ta Toothy Well-Known Member

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    The debates will make or brake either candidate. Whoever chokes (in Hillary's case [coughs]) will lose this election. Even though most Americans are unhappy with the two choices they have, i predict the upcoming debates will be the highest rated ever televised. We can't wait to see who draws first blood.
     
  10. VarmintSam

    VarmintSam Well-Known Member VIP Gold

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    Joe Bauers and JameGumb like this.
  11. Joe Bauers

    Joe Bauers Well-Known Member

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  12. zhukov

    zhukov Time traveler Gold

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    1948.
     
  13. JameGumb

    JameGumb We're all out of toner!

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    Trump could take a meaty dump on the grass of a VA hospital and jump in polls. The Democrats picked the absolute worst to go up against him.
     
  14. Joe Bauers

    Joe Bauers Well-Known Member

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  15. dawg

    dawg In The Dog House Staff Member

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    2008 Hillary was a poisonous snake. 2016 Hillary might be defanged, i haven't seen anything so far to indicate anything different.
     
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  16. thinman

    thinman Well-Known Member

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    I dont understand how anyone could support either trump or hillary. Both suck and are a poor reflection on the voters for even getting us to this point were we have both these liars and crooks as our 2 major candidates.
     
  17. Dorb

    Dorb Lovable Old Pig VIP Gold

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    Only poll that means anything at all is the one taken the day before the election.
    And that is a long way off.
     
  18. potroast

    potroast Well-Known Member

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    The article was published on the 16th. She has already bottomed out in the "polls only" prediction and climbed a point since then.

    I have to agree about the debates though. Must see TV.
     
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  19. Joe Bauers

    Joe Bauers Well-Known Member

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    Can't believe anything MSM says..

     
  20. LonghornJ

    LonghornJ VIP Extreme Gold

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    Donald's a stud... Hill is a dud