Belmont: Final Leg of Triple Crown tonight..Who will win? (includes Poll)

Discussion in 'The Howard Stern Show' started by Dlist, Jun 6, 2015.

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Who Will Win The Belmont Tonight? Post time is 6:50

Poll closed Jun 13, 2015.
  1. Post 5 American Pharoah 5-7

    65.0%
  2. Post 6 Frosted 6-1

    16.7%
  3. Post 8 Materiality 13-2

    6.7%
  4. Post 1 Mubtaahij 14-1

    3.3%
  5. Post 3 Made from Lucky 14-1

    3.3%
  6. Post 2 Tale of Verve 20-1

    1.7%
  7. Post 7 Keen Ice 25-1

    1.7%
  8. Post 4 Frammento 40-1

    1.7%
  1. Dlist

    Dlist Well-Known Member VIP

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    It is tough not to go against the favorite American Pharaoh. He may win in spite of his jockey Victor Espinoza. The Belmont has evaded Espinoza w/ 2 previous Triple Crown contenders--War Emblem and Chrome. Also, science says AP will probably not win due to the time between races. I read that the average recovery time for a horse is 35 days. Since the time between the Preakness and Belmont is 21 days, this puts AP at a distinct disadvantage, and gives the horses that skipped the Preakness a definitive advantage.

    Although I see that Frosted and Materiality are the top contenders to beat AP, I find conflicting information about them but IMHO Materiality has the best chance given that he skipped the Preakness and seems to be one fast and fit horse, but it is unclear to me if he is bred for distance.

    Basically, 12Furlongs is not a race for deep closers and therefore altho I like Frosted as a horse a lot and Madeforlucky is a very good horse- upside - they will have to close too much.

    I see Materiality setting a slow pace with AP behind him and Mubhaatij within 2 lengths of them. If Mub is good enough he can win the race - I love his rider, (Irad Oritz, he is one of the best young riders in the nation)-- and I think after these 2 one of the others could close to get 3rd.

    IMO this is a difficult race to bet.

    Who is best suited to beat AP?



    @Rescued Owl @Bristol Chicken @BethSucks @Buffalo Balls @Pothead @yaddc @LawyerLarry @reno

    or whoever else would like to weigh in
     
  2. Pothead

    Pothead Well-Known Member

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    I'd love to see a triple crown, but I doubt this is the horse to do it. If Big Brown ('08) Smarty Jones ('04) and Funny Cide ('03) couldn't do it

    If I bet later I'm taking Mubtaahij
     
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  3. ice cream

    ice cream Well-Known Member

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    So far all long shots winning

    American pharaoh wins
     
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  4. OV

    OV Rapscallion

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    Interesting ESPN factoid: No successful Triple Crown winner ran against a field as large as the 7 horses facing American Pharaoh. (On average, the winners raced 4.3 horses). So aside from the fact that this is one of the longer, if not longest tracks in the US, the scant 3 week recuperation period, and the seemingly unfair insertion of totally fresh horses, the odds are stacked against AP to begin with. Kind of makes this "favorite" an underdog you want to root for to defy the odds.
     
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  5. Dlist

    Dlist Well-Known Member VIP

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    @Cole I see you voted for Tale of Verve. Care to share your thoughts as to why? :)
     
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  6. crazypreacher

    crazypreacher Hey yo

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    The one with a wee person riding it.
     
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  7. SlowAdam

    SlowAdam misunderstood/forgotten wackpacker

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    triple crown winner is happening this year. can just feel it. gonna be fun to watch as it happens. AMERICAN pharaoh ftw

    edit: would like to nail the trifecta
     
  8. Hugh Blowmont

    Hugh Blowmont Just be funny

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    Im rooting for all the horses to be turned into glue and dog food.
     
  9. Pothead

    Pothead Well-Known Member

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    HBO did a thing on that a while back. First they have to ship them to Mexico or Canada.
     
  10. SorryBoff

    SorryBoff Well-Known Member

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    I like Materiality, thats a fast horse w/ Velazquez as the mount. Triple Crown is hard to win and I'm not totally convinced Am Pharaoh is a super horse.
     
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  11. Dlist

    Dlist Well-Known Member VIP

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    What are you choices for this SlowAdam?

    If I were to bet it would be an exacta it would be Mubtaahij-Materiality
     
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  12. SlowAdam

    SlowAdam misunderstood/forgotten wackpacker

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    i'm not sure AMERICAN pharaoh is a "super horse" either, but it has been the best of the lot it has run against
     
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  13. SlowAdam

    SlowAdam misunderstood/forgotten wackpacker

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    for trifecta i guess box the 5-6-8 for play it safe shot at shitty odds, but going for it would gamble 5-8-3. but no matter what any bet with this heavy favorite winning is not gonna be great/fun odds.

    edit: disclaimer: i don't bet horses and am a casual fan that just pays attention to the derby and preakness and belmont so i really have no idea what i'm talking about. just rooting to see a triple crown winner
     
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  14. MutteringJohn

    MutteringJohn Well-Known Member

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    I'm rooting against American Pharoah because I want to see Bob's son Bode cry on TV.
     
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  15. SlowAdam

    SlowAdam misunderstood/forgotten wackpacker

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    yeah alot of people definitely like rooting against the triple crown potential because they like to see the disappointment on the owners/trainers/families faces when they are crushed after losing. also some older people don't want to see possibly inferior horses in the same class as the legendary ones of past. and because they are betting on the longer odds horses
     
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  16. austin54

    austin54 Well-Known Member

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    What spot on the rail will Beth Stern being going out of? Big horse from Long Island. Likes to play spoiler.
     
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  17. lovetalkradio

    lovetalkradio Well-Known Member

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    I knew that was coming.
     
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  18. lovetalkradio

    lovetalkradio Well-Known Member

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    Who is that on your avatar? True, airbrushing probably exists, but that maybe the finest ass I've ever seen!
     
  19. Pothead

    Pothead Well-Known Member

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    Pretty much everybody I know is rooting for a Triple Crown, even if they are betting against it.

    I think there's a lot more apathy about the Triple Crown. No one gives a shit anymore except a few diehards.

    Maybe if Caitlyn Jenner makes a pick, people will start to care
     
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  20. Rescued Owl

    Rescued Owl VIP Extreme Gold

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    I just got in on a pool at the bar and got Materiality by luck of the draw. I also won $300 on Keno so I feel pretty luck going with Materiality.
    I think my trifecta today is going to be 8-6-5.
    Good luck everybody !
     
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