WTF N = R* fp ne f/ fi fc L

Discussion in 'The Howard Stern Show' started by chapped, Feb 15, 2016.

  1. chapped

    chapped Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]


    N = The number of civilizations in The Milky Way Galaxy whose electromagnetic emissions are detectable.

    R* = The rate of formation of stars suitable for the development of intelligent life.

    fp = The fraction of those stars with planetary systems.

    ne = The number of planets, per solar system, with an environment suitable for life.

    fl = The fraction of suitable planets on which life actually appears.

    fi = The fraction of life bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges.

    fc = The fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.

    L = The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.



    Estimates
    Original estimates
    There is considerable disagreement on the values of these parameters, but the 'educated guesses' used by Drake and his colleagues in 1961 were:

    • R* = 1/year (1 star formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy; this was regarded as conservative)
    • fp = 0.2-0.5 (one fifth to one half of all stars formed will have planets)
    • ne = 1-5 (stars with planets will have between 1 and 5 planets capable of developing life)
    • fl = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life)
    • fi = 1 (100% of which will develop intelligent life)
    • fc = 0.1-0.2 (10-20% of which will be able to communicate)
    • L = 1000-100,000,000 years (which will last somewhere between 1000 and 100,000,000 years)
    Inserting the above minimum numbers into the equation gives a minimum N of 20. Inserting the maximum numbers gives a maximum of 50,000,000. Drake states that given the uncertainties, the original meeting concluded that N ≈ L, and there were probably between 1000 and 100,000,000 civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy.



    [​IMG]
     
  2. GaryPuppet

    GaryPuppet Well-Known Member

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    This is giving awful flash backs back to high school.
     
  3. Flabo

    Flabo Well-Known Member

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    Riley Martin use to explain it a whole hell of a lot simpler
     
  4. Sloppyjoe

    Sloppyjoe VIP Extreme Gold

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    200 billion stars in our galaxy alone. there is an awful lot we have yet to look at and a good chance of some form of life somewhere in our galaxy.
     
  5. AcquiringSignal

    AcquiringSignal Girthy VIP

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    That is a lot of SiriusXM subscribers.
     
  6. Mr Fantastic

    Mr Fantastic Found Nemo VIP

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  7. McLennison

    McLennison VIP Extreme Gold

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    Of course, it's obvious.
     
  8. tearsOfCum

    tearsOfCum Well-Known Member

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    Interesting.. I just want my fucking internet faster.
     
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  9. The Booey

    The Booey Well-Known Member

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    God, I'm search a nerd. I recognized Drake's Equation the instant I saw it. :splat:
     
  10. ScottBaiosPenis

    ScottBaiosPenis Well-Known Member

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    Things of that nature
     
  11. chapped

    chapped Well-Known Member

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    There are only so many pork chops you can eat woman. .... (to Robin)
     
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  12. chapped

    chapped Well-Known Member

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    And ours is just one of a few 100 billion galaxies. ...

    :grad:
     
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  13. R.P. McMurphy

    R.P. McMurphy Well-Known Member

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    ...sounds reasonable.
     
  14. Turkeyneck

    Turkeyneck Howard's got one, not me VIP

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    just how insignificant are we?
     
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  15. jokeland

    jokeland Well-Known Member VIP

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    now, prove it
     
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  16. Rescued Owl

    Rescued Owl VIP Extreme Gold

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    I saw that same equation written on the banks of the St. Francis river in Arkansas after yet another severe bout of food poisoning, you understand ?
     
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  17. larry Darrel

    larry Darrel Well-Known Member

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    Fermi's paradox:

    "The Fermi paradox or Fermi's paradox, named after Enrico Fermi, is the apparent contradiction between high estimates of the probability of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations, such as in the Drake equation, and the lack of evidence for such civilizations."

    Where the fuck are these "beings" and why haven't we made contact?
     
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  18. chapped

    chapped Well-Known Member

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    our closest star neighbor is 93 million miles away...
    the universe is an unimaginably large place...
    how far away is shit? well lets say
    If I put you on the farthest point in our galaxy (100,000 light years give and take a mile)
    and I gave you the best telescope ever made.. and IF photons were capable of not breaking up over that distance
    looking at earth from that distance (a cosmic blip) you would not see humans a like us.. but cavemen

    so why haven't we seen ET? well maybe ET isn't there but then again maybe shit is so far away we will never know
     
  19. chapped

    chapped Well-Known Member

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    okay fuck i have to quit the day drinking
     
  20. Pigsaw

    Pigsaw Well-Known Member

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    All of the numbers are based on the assumption that intelligent life, or life that is capable of say, radio astronomy is more common that it really is. Look at it like this. How many forms of life are there on the Earth? To coin a phrase...billions and billions. From simple fungi, bacteria, single celled organisms, plants, insects, animals all the way to man. Lets say each form of life represents a planet that has life. Intelligent life. After all dogs and cats are intelligent and self aware. Dolphins and whales even more so. Even our closest relatives the great apes are smart enough to understand language. But of all of those life forms how many have developed radio astronomy? :grad:

    ONE.

    That's why the numbers are so far off. It's a pretty big gap between one thousand and one-hundred million.
    Our galaxy may be overflowing with life. But we could be the only ones that know it.:dontknow: