Politics Nate Silver:Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War

Discussion in 'The Howard Stern Show' started by the G-man, Feb 21, 2016.

  1. the G-man

    the G-man Well-Known Member

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    Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War:
    If you think the arguments between the Republican candidates have been bad, well, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Pundits, reporters and political analysts are going to really have at it. Two competing theories about the Republican race are about to come to a head, and both of them can claim a victory of sorts after South Carolina.

    The first theory is simple. It can be summarized in one word: Trump! The more detailed version would argue the following:​
    So, um, isn’t it obvious that Trump is going to be the Republican nominee?

    Not so, say the Trump skeptics. Their case is pretty simple also:​
      • Trump is winning states, but he’s only getting about one-third of the vote.
      • Trump has a relatively low ceiling on his support.
      • Trump now has a chief rival: Florida senator Marco Rubio.

    I just posted the intro. Silver goes into more detailed analysis in the rest of the article. The whole thing is a pretty interesting read no matter which side of the Trump debate you come down on.
     
  2. jlightningzz

    jlightningzz Well-Known Member VIP

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    Marco Rubio said yesterday that "Jeb Bush was the greatest governor in the history of Florida." Marco Rubio said the day before yesterday that "Jeb Bush was completely unqualified to be President." Marco Rubio is completely bought and paid for by special interests. Trump is out of his mind with this wall shit, but at least what you see is what you get.
     
  3. YinzerMasshole

    YinzerMasshole VIP Extreme Gold

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    He has a chief rival, but it's worth pointing out that guy can't seem to lock up more than 22% of an electorate either.
     
  4. the G-man

    the G-man Well-Known Member

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    That isn't intrinsically contradictory. All that means is that Jeb was good at one job but isnt/wasnt qualified for another, due to the differences in each level of government (for example, the sheer size of government, the fact that governors don't have to deal with military issues, the relative homogenity of a state vs an entire country).

    Still, Silver's article is more about numbers and strategy, not necessarily preferences or candidate competenices.
     
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  5. jlightningzz

    jlightningzz Well-Known Member VIP

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    Sure...I can agree with that. It is amazing how disingenuous politicians can be from one day to the next....from both sides. Bernie and Donald are the only candidates left who speak for themselves. I believe the pundits/skeptics have been wrong about Trump from Day 1...and they will probably continue to be. I read the article. Trump at 50% Rubio at 40% and field at 10% is dumb. Rubio 75% Trump 25%...only because I give a strong possibility that Trump will lose his shit on live TV when someone "isn't nice" to him. It is much too sensible to nominate their best chance in Kasich.
     
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  6. MrWarmth

    MrWarmth ADORABLE DEPLORABLE Gold

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    Hillary is not healthy enough to endure what's gonna happen in the next 9 months.
     
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  7. RonHeinzkaboot

    RonHeinzkaboot Adultophile VIP

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    Rubio has that perpetual dry mouth of a guy who takes a lot of conflicting pills.
    I gotta believe he is a very weak candidate.
    In Florida, he's known by the scumbag Cuban politican he share a home with or his drug dealer brother in law. He's a slime ball.
    it's funny you see him on that Showtime show consumed with Eze E or EDM music and he met his wife at a foam party, yet he's anti gay.
    His grandparents and parents came here illegally and worked the welfare system yet he's all a sudden anti immigrants. Wasn't anti immigrant when he was taking all that big-Sugar and big Agricultural monet in Florida.
    he's a fake candidate
    And Cruz calling himself a conservative is a joke, he's a life long bureaucrat, who sings show tunes to his beard rich old stockbroker wife that he never can seem to live with, never gave $ to a church, shilling for India immigration, bought by Wallstreet and could not throw a punch to save his life. and what's with the eyeliner Cruz?

    Trump is the only true conservative. Never a beaucrat, honest, marries women, fucks women, does notdrink or do drugs, his kids respect him and he doesn't wear gay clothes like gogo boots Rubio or Auntie Ted.

    that's the GOP s problem, they are over run by gay men like Rove, Presbes, Cruz, that think they can win any election because Evangelicals follow them blindly. It's the same with Hilary andblacks.
    Hilary and Rubio are working for the same establishment. wake up people
     
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2016
  8. RonHeinzkaboot

    RonHeinzkaboot Adultophile VIP

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    how does he become the nomination without winning one peimary
     
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  9. sstressed

    sstressed enhancement toker VIP

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    i hope you're wrong. i'm looking forward to trump teaching her what anal feels like!
     
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  10. RonHeinzkaboot

    RonHeinzkaboot Adultophile VIP

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    look at Cheney
    be interesting to see if she got a bump from Bill going
    I'm not sure if he looks good or unhealthy, he lost a lot of weight
     
  11. RonHeinzkaboot

    RonHeinzkaboot Adultophile VIP

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    Yeah love his site, he's a great analyst in the true sense
    he's just looking at numbers and historical trends
     
  12. MrWarmth

    MrWarmth ADORABLE DEPLORABLE Gold

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    I agree. I wanna see him rub her dick in the dirt like he did to Jeb and the entire Bush mob.
     
  13. R.P. McMurphy

    R.P. McMurphy Well-Known Member

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    ...i cant wait for trump to steal his lunch money and give him a wedgie.
     
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  14. RonHeinzkaboot

    RonHeinzkaboot Adultophile VIP

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    whoever is the GOP nomination, it's going to have to be the VP who attacks her straight on. He's already said he's going to choose a politican, it will be interesting who he chooses
     
  15. dawg

    dawg In The Dog House Staff Member

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  16. SorryBoff

    SorryBoff Well-Known Member

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    I look at it this way. after super tuesday on March 1st Trump will probably have about 10+ states under his belt, Cruz could have 2-3 and Rubio zero. But Rubio will and Cruz will split the 2nd place finishes.

    I think Cruz' supporters will start gravitating towards Trump once they start to realize he is the outsider candidate most likely to get the nomination, they certainly won't go to Rubio.

    There are not enough establishment votes out there for Rubio to win.
     
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  17. MrWarmth

    MrWarmth ADORABLE DEPLORABLE Gold

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    I'll bet my paycheck that that son of a cunt has syphilis
     
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  18. RonHeinzkaboot

    RonHeinzkaboot Adultophile VIP

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    I agree he gets my vote just for what he did to the Bushs
     
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  19. RonHeinzkaboot

    RonHeinzkaboot Adultophile VIP

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    this is very on point. but let's see what happens in Texas.
    if the establishment goes full on against Cruz and gets the Latin vote out and George Bush to stomp for Rubio, I think he can take that state.
    Evangelicals may swing to Rubio because they become convinced by the media, which is already drumming this, that Trump can't beat Hilary.
    with Scalia out the Evangelicals will throw behind Rubio instead of Cruz just for the win
     
  20. sstressed

    sstressed enhancement toker VIP

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    no way trump will have his proposed VP have all the fun. not happining!
     
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