Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War: If you think the arguments between the Republican candidates have been bad, well, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Pundits, reporters and political analysts are going to really have at it. Two competing theories about the Republican race are about to come to a head, and both of them can claim a victory of sorts after South Carolina. The first theory is simple. It can be summarized in one word: Trump! The more detailed version would argue the following: Trump has easily won two of the first three states. Trump is ahead in the polls in pretty much every remaining state. Trump is ahead in delegates — in fact, he may win all 50 delegates from South Carolina. Trump has been extremely resilient despite pundits constantly predicting his demise.1 He’s been at 35 percent in national polls for months now. That’s as steady as it gets! So, um, isn’t it obvious that Trump is going to be the Republican nominee? Not so, say the Trump skeptics. Their case is pretty simple also: Trump is winning states, but he’s only getting about one-third of the vote. Trump has a relatively low ceiling on his support. Trump now has a chief rival: Florida senator Marco Rubio. I just posted the intro. Silver goes into more detailed analysis in the rest of the article. The whole thing is a pretty interesting read no matter which side of the Trump debate you come down on.