Politics Nate Silver's breakdown of Trump's first ballot or bust

Discussion in 'The Howard Stern Show' started by MutteringJohn, Apr 1, 2016.

  1. MutteringJohn

    MutteringJohn Well-Known Member

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    Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com whose prediction's of elections is dead on gives his take Trump's chances after first ballot.

    At the prediction market Betfair on Friday morning, bettors put Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican presidential nomination at 56 percent. That’s down a fair bit — Trump had been hovering at about 70 percent after his win in Arizona (and loss in Utah) last week. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a contested convention according to bettors has considerably increased. There’s now a 63 percent chance1 that the convention in Cleveland will require multiple ballots, according to Betfair.

    In other words, the markets are now betting on a contested convention. Not just a near-miss, where the nomination is resolved at some point between the last day of GOP primaries June 7 and the start of the convention July 18, but the thing that political journalists dream about: a full-blown contested convention where it takes multiple ballots to determine the Republican nominee.

    Here’s the thing, though: Those markets don’t make a lot of sense. If you really think the chance of a multi-ballot convention is 63 percent, but also still have Trump with a 56 percent chance of winning the nomination, that implies there’s a fairly good chance that Trump will win if voting goes beyond the first ballot. That’s probably wrong. If Trump doesn’t win on the first ballot, he’s probably screwed.

    The basic reason is simple. Most of the 2,472 delegates with a vote in Cleveland probably aren’t going to like Trump.

    Let’s back up a bit. In most of our discussions about delegates here at FiveThirtyEight, we treat them as though they’re some sort of statistical unit. We might say a candidate “racked up 44 delegates” in the same way we’d say Steph Curry scored 44 points. But those delegates aren’t just a scoring mechanism: Delegates are people, my friends. Delegates are people!

    And as I said, they’re mostly people who aren’t going to like Trump, at least if the excellent reporting from Politico and other news organizations is right. (If Trump turns out to have more support among GOP delegates than this reporting suggests, even marginally, that could end up mattering a great deal.) How can that be? In most states, the process to select the men and women who will serve as delegates is separate from presidential balloting. In Massachusetts, for instance, Trump won 49 percent of the GOP vote on March 1 — his highest share in any state to date — to earn 22 of the state’s 42 delegates. But the people who will serve as delegates haven’t been chosen yet. That will happen at a series of congressional district conventions later this month and then a Republican state meeting in May or June. According to Politico, most of those delegates are liable to favor Ted Cruz or John Kasich rather than Trump. Twenty-two of them will still be bound to Trump on the first ballot, but they can switch after that. The same story holds in a lot of other states: in Georgia, Louisiana and South Carolina, for instance — also states that Trump won.
     
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  2. MutteringJohn

    MutteringJohn Well-Known Member

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    Trump’s delegate problems stem from two major issues. One is his lack of organization: Trump just recently hired a strategist to oversee his delegate-selection efforts; Cruz has been working on the process for months. The other is his lack of support from “party elites.” The people who attend state caucuses and conventions are mostly dyed-in-the-wool Republican regulars and insiders, a group that is vigorously opposed to Trump. Furthermore, some delegate slots are automatically given to party leaders and elected officials, another group that strongly opposes Trump, as evident in his lack of endorsements among them.

    There are various ways these delegates could cause problems for Trump. The most obvious, as I mentioned, is if the convention goes to a second ballot because no candidate wins a majority on the first. Not all delegates become free instantaneously,2 but most do, and left to vote their personal preference, most of them will probably oppose Trump.

    Conversely, Trump isn’t totally safe even if he locks up 1,237 delegates by the time the final Republicans vote. The delegates have a lot of power, both on the convention floor and in the various rules and credentials committeesthat will begin meeting before the convention officially begins. If they wanted to, the delegates could deploy a “nuclear option” on Trump and vote to unbind themselves on the first ballot, a strategy Ted Kennedy unsuccessfully pursued against Jimmy Carter in 1980.

    Although I’d place fairly long odds against this thermonuclear tactic, there’s also the possibility of piecemeal skirmishes for delegates. In South Carolina, for instance, delegates might unbind themselves on the pretext that Trump withdrew his pledge to support the Republican nominee. Remember those chaotic Nevada caucuses that Trump won? They could be the subject of a credentials challenge. There could also be disputes over the disposition of delegates from Marco Rubio and other candidates who have dropped out of the race.3 A final possibility is “faithless delegates,” where individual delegates simply decline to vote for Trump despite being bound to do so by party rules. It’s not clear whether this is allowed under Republican rules, but it’s also not clear what the enforcement mechanism would be.

    I don’t want to make too much of these “nuclear” possibilities, given that such efforts would be blatantly undemocratic and would risk a huge backlash from Republican voters. Still, even 1,237 delegates isn’t quite a safe number for Trump, especially if he’s just barely above that threshold.

    Another possibility is Trump coming up somewhat short of 1,237 delegates, but close enough that he could win on the basis of uncommitted delegates who vote for him on the first ballot. In fact, Trump finishing with something like 1,200 delegates is a strong possibility. The expert panel we convened two weeks ago had Trump finishing at 1,208 delegates — with a lot of uncertainty on either side of that estimate — and he’s run just slightly behind our projected pace since then by getting shut out of delegates in Utah.

    Let’s say that Trump ends with exactly 1,200 delegates after California. He’d then need 37 uncommitted delegates to win on the first ballot. That might not seem like such a tall order — there will be at least 138 uncommitted delegates, according to Daniel Nichanian’s tracking, and Trump would need only 27 percent of those. But most of those delegates4 are chosen at state meetings and conventions, the same events producing unfavorable delegate slates for Trump in Massachusetts and other states.

    Alternatively, Trump could try to broker a deal with another candidate — Kasich, for example — to get to 1,237. But that isn’t so easy either; whether Kasich could instruct his delegates to vote for Trump on the first ballot would vary depending on the rules in each state, and some delegates could become unbound instead of having to vote Trump. Trump and Kasich could also try to strike a deal on the second ballot — but by that point, most of their delegates would have become free to vote as they please.

    This is not an exhaustive list of complications. We’ll save the discussion about Rule 40 — and why it’s largely toothless — for another time, for instance. The basic problem for Trump is that all the rules will be written and interpreted by the delegates, delegates who mostly don’t like Trump. They have a lot of power to wield at their discretion.

    That’s not to say the rest of the voting doesn’t matter — it would be mucheasier, both procedurally and ethically, to block Trump from getting the nomination if he comes into the convention with 1,100 delegates instead of 1,300.
     
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  3. Head Censor

    Head Censor Turgid Member VIP

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    "Guru" Nate Silver hasn't been right about one thing pertaining to Trump this election. Just saying.
     
  4. MutteringJohn

    MutteringJohn Well-Known Member

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    Nathaniel Read "Nate" Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics) and elections (see psephology). He is currently the editor-in-chief of ESPN's FiveThirtyEightblog and a Special Correspondent for ABC News. Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA,[3] a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009.[4]

    After Silver successfully called the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time in 2009.[5]

    In 2010, the FiveThirtyEight blog was licensed for publication by The New York Times.[6][7] In 2012 and 2013, FiveThirtyEight won Webby Awards as the "Best Political Blog" from the International Academy of Digital Arts and Sciences.

    In the 2012 United States presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, Silver correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.[8]
     
  5. dawg

    dawg In The Dog House Staff Member

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  6. BethSucks

    BethSucks Well-Known Member Staff Member

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  7. lastlaugh

    lastlaugh Well-Known Member

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    A brokered convention is definitely what's coming.
     
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  8. redshirt

    redshirt Well-Known Member VIP

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    Would the Republicans like it more if they lost with their guy, or won with someone who is a complete wildcard/RINO?
     
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  9. unclefreddy

    unclefreddy Well-Known Member

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    The GOP might decide to lose and dump Trump, but keep control of the GOP party. Some might think that the democrats would win anyway, so getting rid of Trump and keeping the GOP party in control is a win win for them.

    Remember these political parties are about control and a few top guys. Don't ever think they have a vision for the common people.
     
  10. R.P. McMurphy

    R.P. McMurphy Well-Known Member

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    ...if they dump trump he will run as 3rd party and the democrats will win no matter whos running. if trump hits 1237 before the convention then all of this is for nothing because he will have it locked in.
     
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  11. No Head Games

    No Head Games Well-Known Member

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    Limbaugh said yesterday that the establishment GOP views any candidate that falls short of 1237 as being disqualified from the nomination. The logic being they had their chance and people rejected them. That opens the GOP to pick someone like Ryan or Romney.

    He wasn't guaranteeing thus would happen but said this what the GOP wants to do if they can get away with it.
     
  12. No Head Games

    No Head Games Well-Known Member

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    It's too late for Trump to get on the ballet as a 3rd party.
     
  13. R.P. McMurphy

    R.P. McMurphy Well-Known Member

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    ...according to this website he has until august in most states. scroll down for the list
    https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates


    [hide]Petition signature requirements for independent presidential candidates, 2016
    StateFormulaExample of signatures neededFiling deadline
    Alabama5,0005,0008/18/2016
    Alaska1% of the total number of state voters who cast ballots for president in the most recent election3,0058/10/2016
    Arizona3% of all registered voters who are not affiliated with a qualified political party36,0009/9/2016
    Arkansas1,0001,0008/1/2016
    California1% of the total number of registered voters in the state at the time of the close of registration prior to the preceding general election178,0398/12/2016
    Colorado5,0005,0008/10/2016
    Connecticut1% of the total vote cast for president in the most recent election, or 7,500, whichever is less7,5008/10/2016
    Delaware1% of the total number of registered voters in the state6,5007/15/2016
    Florida1% of the total number of registered voters in the state119,3167/15/2016
    GeorgiaTemporary court order applying only to 2016 candidates7,5007/12/2016
    Hawaii1% of the total number of votes cast in the state for president in the most recent election4,3478/10/2016
    Idaho1,0001,0008/24/2016
    Illinois1% of the total number of voters in the most recent statewide general election, or 25,000, whichever is less25,0006/27/2016
    Indiana2% of the total vote cast for secretary of state in the most recent election26,7006/30/2016
    Iowa1,500 eligible voters from at least 10 of the state's counties1,5008/19/2016
    Kansas5,0005,0008/1/2016
    Kentucky5,0005,0009/9/2016
    Louisiana5,0005,0008/19/2016
    MaineBetween 4,000 and 6,0004,0008/1/2016
    Maryland1% of the total number of registered state voters38,0008/1/2016
    Massachusetts10,00010,0008/2/2016
    Michigan30,00030,0007/21/2016
    Minnesota2,0002,0008/23/2016
    Mississippi1,0001,0009/9/2016
    Missouri10,00010,0007/25/2016
    Montana5% of the total votes cast for the successful candidate for governor in the last election, or 5,000, whichever is less5,0008/17/2016
    Nebraska2,500 registered voters who did not vote in any party's primary2,5008/1/2016
    Nevada1% of the total number of votes cast for all representatives in Congress in the last election5,4317/8/2016
    New Hampshire3,000 voters, with at least 1,500 from each congressional district3,0008/10/2016
    New Jersey8008008/1/2016
    New Mexico3% of the total votes cast for governor in the last general election15,3886/30/2016
    New York15,000, with at least 100 from each of the state's congressional districts15,0008/23/2016
    North Carolina2% of the total votes cast for governor in the previous general election89,3666/9/2016
    North Dakota4,0004,0009/5/2016
    Ohio5,0005,0008/10/2016
    Oklahoma3% of the total votes cast in the last general election for president40,0477/15/2016
    Oregon1% of the total votes cast in the last general election for president17,8938/30/2016
    Pennsylvania2% of the largest entire vote cast for any elected candidate in the state at the last preceding election at which statewide candidates were voted for"25,0008/1/2016
    Rhode Island1,0001,0009/9/2016
    South Carolina5% of registered voters up to 10,00010,0007/15/2016
    South Dakota1% of the combined vote for governor in the last election2,7758/2/2016
    Tennessee25 votes per state elector (275 total)2758/18/2016
    Texas1% of the total votes cast for all candidates in the previous presidential election79,9395/9/2016
    Utah1,0001,0008/15/2016
    Vermont1,0001,0008/1/2016
    Virginia5,000 registered voters, with at least 200 from each congressional district5,0008/26/2016
    Washington1,0001,0007/23/2016
    Washington, D.C.1% of the district's qualified voters4,6008/10/2016
    West Virginia1% of the total votes cast in the state for president in the most recent election6,7058/1/2016
    WisconsinBetween 2,000 and 4,0002,0008/2/2016
    Wyoming2% of the total number of votes cast for United States Representative in the most recent general election3,3028/30/2016
     
  14. MutteringJohn

    MutteringJohn Well-Known Member

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    This is true but Donald can declare himself a write-in candidate for President. If he is pissed off enough with the Republican Party he will do it. Most of his constituents won't go to the polls but those that do will write him in. This will ensure that Ted Cruz will never win the Presidency. I think Trump will choose the nuclear option. He is never going to support Cruz. Trump won't win the brokered convention but he can throw his weight around. He can tell them to change the rules and select a candidate other than Cruz and himself or he will tell this people to write him in. Does anyone believe that Donald is just going to roll over and play dead and get behind Cruz. Trump isn't in the party. He will just go back to being a billionaire. That unification meeting was all bullshit.
    Trump is just trying to get on people's good side so he has a shot of getting nomination if he falls short of delegates. It's the smart move. Promise them anything now, if he doesn't get it then fuck you all.
     
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  15. R.P. McMurphy

    R.P. McMurphy Well-Known Member

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    ...wrong and wrong. texas is the earliest state and he still has time to get on the ballot there.

    http://ktul.com/news/election/is-it-too-late-for-an-independent-presidential-run-not-quite-yet
     
  16. SorryBoff

    SorryBoff Well-Known Member

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    That's not the problem, some states have rules that would prohibit this because he already received votes as a republican. He would not be able to get on the ballot in all 50 states.
     
  17. Willowglen

    Willowglen Lookin thru the glass ceiling & up Stephs skirt VIP

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    Even when the clown car is whittled down to two clowns the GOP is still a circus.
     
  18. MutteringJohn

    MutteringJohn Well-Known Member

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    At that point all he would be trying to do is fuck over Cruz. The Democrats would win but Donald would have the satisfaction that Cruz isn't getting the White House, either.
     
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  19. EndOfLine

    EndOfLine PLATINUM SPONSOR VIP

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  20. SorryBoff

    SorryBoff Well-Known Member

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    True, of course I believe Trump supporters would be so angry that the gop propped Cruz up there at the convention they wouldn't turn out to vote anyway. So regardless of hether he went 3rd party or not I think the outcome would be the same.