Politics New Poll: Carson Takes Lead Over Trump In Iowa For The First Time

Discussion in 'The Howard Stern Show' started by BethSucks, Oct 22, 2015.

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  1. BethSucks

    BethSucks Well-Known Member Staff Member

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    New Iowa poll shows Ben Carson leading Donald Trump for first time
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    Ben Carson has overtaken Donald Trump in Iowa, 28 - 20 percent among likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants, according to a new Quinnipiac poll released Thursday morning.

    This is the first time Trump has not been in the lead in the GOP field in Iowa since he entered the race. Carson has tied him twice before but has never led, CBS Senior Political Editor Steve Chaggaris noted.

    In its last survey, Sept.11, the Quinnipiac poll found Trump leading the Republican field with 27 percent to Carson's 21 percent.

    Marco Rubio is in third, with 13 percent, followed by Ted Cruz, who attracted 10 percent support. Rand Paul has six percent and Jeb Bush is tied with Carly Fiorina - both have five percent.

    Carson's strength in this poll lies in his appeal to women, who chose Carson over Trump, 33 - 13 percent. Among men, the two are virtually tied, with 25 percent for Carson, compared to 24 percent for Trump.

    Thirty percent of likely GOP caucus goers say there is no way they'd support Trump, followed by Bush, with 21 percent who said there's no way they'd support him.

    Still, Trump is thought to have strong leadership qualities, with 80 percent, compared to Carson's 76 percent.

    And even though Bush is trailing, 76 percent of poll respondents think he has the right kind of experience to be president, topping Cruz at 70 percent, Rubio at 69 percent, Carson at 57 percent, and Trump at 56 percent.

    From October 14 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 574 likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Live interviewers called land lines and cell phones.
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #1
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  2. Limo Wreck

    Limo Wreck Aboard the great mothership Gold

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    Oct 22, 2015 #2
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  3. vaporizer

    vaporizer Well-Known Member

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    you took my reaction bro!

    both of these guys are raging retards so it doesn't really matter in the end.
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #3
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  4. Divorce Chicken

    Divorce Chicken I've got angst in my pants VIP

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    Ben Carson is a genius and would be our first black president. It would drive the libs crazy if you said that to them.
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #4
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  5. AllAboutHim Ed

    AllAboutHim Ed #mypurpose VIP

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    This can't be... I thought Republicans hate black people.
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #5
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  6. Tim

    Tim Well-Known Member VIP

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    How typical is the sample size of 574 people? Just curious

    I personally think Carson is a kook
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #6
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  7. Divorce Chicken

    Divorce Chicken I've got angst in my pants VIP

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    And women too!
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #7
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  8. AllAboutHim Ed

    AllAboutHim Ed #mypurpose VIP

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    I'd vote for him because he is black, but his religion stuff is downright nutty.
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #8
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  9. ltd86

    ltd86 Racist Banned User

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    it's "likely caucus-goers"

    trump brings out a whole new group of people to vote

    he just increased his lead to ten points in the abc/wapo poll yesterday
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #9
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  10. scoobyla

    scoobyla Well-Known Member

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    carson is a good man with honest values.
    but he doesnt seem to have any grasp of foriegn policy or how to run a country.
    he will not be the nominee (choosing him ina poll, and choosing him ina ballot are vastly different things)
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #10
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  11. Pig

    Pig The original Dorb VIP

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    The beginning of the end for the Donald.:rip2:
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #11
  12. R.P. McMurphy

    R.P. McMurphy Well-Known Member

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    ...carson is a fucking kook. respectable as a dr but he doesnt have the right stuff to be prez. a sampling of 574 people cant speak for the entire state. i aint buying it, its a campaign tactic to create buzz. thats how bad the party wants to get rid of trump.
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #12
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  13. scoobyla

    scoobyla Well-Known Member

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    of course they dont, they only hate black dems (and white dems)
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #13
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  14. Pig

    Pig The original Dorb VIP

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    Polls mean nothing at this stage of the game kid.
    Got 9 months till the convention.
    Everything can change in those 9 months.
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #14
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  15. ltd86

    ltd86 Racist Banned User

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    iowa is 14 weeks away
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #15
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  16. ltd86

    ltd86 Racist Banned User

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    notice it's "likely caucus goers"

    almost every other poll is of republican voters.

    "likely caucus goers" allows the polling company much more discretion to narrow down who they poll, not necessarily in an accurate way (especially with a candidate like trump who should, hopefully, be turning out people who usually don't caucus in the past)
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #16
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  17. chapped

    chapped Well-Known Member

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    :haha:
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #17
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  18. SouthernListen

    SouthernListen New phone who dis? VIP

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    Some fun facts and perspective:

    About 120,000 votes are cast.

    About 30% of the state are registered Republicans.

    Only about 20% of registered Republicans vote in this.

    So 6% of eligible voters in the state vote in this.

    Therefore, a candidate who gets 28% of the votes in this caucus can be assured of the support of 1.68% of the state's eligible voters.

    Iowa has a population of only about 3 million.

    You can re-register from Independent or Democrat to Republican to vote in the caucus, "on the spot".

    17 y/o's can vote in the caucus. ( assume they realize they will turn 18 before the election)

    My conclusions would be that a) it would tend to favor candidates the "hard core" Republican types prefer, as most casual Republicans don't bother to vote in it, and b) it's a "small" state in terms of importance, despite its early caucus.

    It's also important to realize that even if Trump has huge leads in polls, those who actually bother to vote in primaries tend to be more mainstream in their preferences.
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #18
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  19. R.P. McMurphy

    R.P. McMurphy Well-Known Member

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    ...they dont caucus until feb 1st so this is just a moment in time.
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #19
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  20. SouthernListen

    SouthernListen New phone who dis? VIP

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    A billionaire (ostensibly) and a surgeon.

    They could be here pontificating!
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #20
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