Politics New Poll: Carson Takes Lead Over Trump In Iowa For The First Time

Discussion in 'The Howard Stern Show' started by BethSucks, Oct 22, 2015.

Page 1 of 10
  1. BethSucks

    BethSucks Well-Known Member Staff Member

    Reputations:
    84,543
    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2012
    Messages:
    31,107
    Likes Received:
    61,362
    New Iowa poll shows Ben Carson leading Donald Trump for first time
    [​IMG]
    Ben Carson has overtaken Donald Trump in Iowa, 28 - 20 percent among likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants, according to a new Quinnipiac poll released Thursday morning.

    This is the first time Trump has not been in the lead in the GOP field in Iowa since he entered the race. Carson has tied him twice before but has never led, CBS Senior Political Editor Steve Chaggaris noted.

    In its last survey, Sept.11, the Quinnipiac poll found Trump leading the Republican field with 27 percent to Carson's 21 percent.

    Marco Rubio is in third, with 13 percent, followed by Ted Cruz, who attracted 10 percent support. Rand Paul has six percent and Jeb Bush is tied with Carly Fiorina - both have five percent.

    Carson's strength in this poll lies in his appeal to women, who chose Carson over Trump, 33 - 13 percent. Among men, the two are virtually tied, with 25 percent for Carson, compared to 24 percent for Trump.

    Thirty percent of likely GOP caucus goers say there is no way they'd support Trump, followed by Bush, with 21 percent who said there's no way they'd support him.

    Still, Trump is thought to have strong leadership qualities, with 80 percent, compared to Carson's 76 percent.

    And even though Bush is trailing, 76 percent of poll respondents think he has the right kind of experience to be president, topping Cruz at 70 percent, Rubio at 69 percent, Carson at 57 percent, and Trump at 56 percent.

    From October 14 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 574 likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Live interviewers called land lines and cell phones.
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #1
    Anyonenow and scoobyla like this.
  2. Limo Wreck

    Limo Wreck Aboard the great mothership Gold

    Reputations:
    2,345
    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2011
    Messages:
    9,014
    Likes Received:
    19,625
    Oct 22, 2015 #2
    CooksRome, GLguygardner, ONV and 16 others like this.
  3. vaporizer

    vaporizer Well-Known Member

    Reputations:
    1,052
    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2015
    Messages:
    4,542
    Likes Received:
    9,633
    you took my reaction bro!

    both of these guys are raging retards so it doesn't really matter in the end.
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #3
    GLguygardner, ONV, bossofbam and 6 others like this.
  4. Divorce Chicken

    Divorce Chicken Willy one plunge VIP

    Reputations:
    34,403
    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2012
    Messages:
    18,016
    Likes Received:
    41,453
    Ben Carson is a genius and would be our first black president. It would drive the libs crazy if you said that to them.
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #4
    PI Nate, BethWeave and maroon like this.
  5. AllAboutHim Ed

    AllAboutHim Ed #mypurpose VIP

    Reputations:
    17,463
    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2014
    Messages:
    7,735
    Likes Received:
    11,902
    This can't be... I thought Republicans hate black people.
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #5
    Willy Pfister, PI Nate, maroon and 1 other person like this.
  6. Tim

    Tim VIP Extreme Gold

    Reputations:
    49,350
    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2015
    Messages:
    12,174
    Likes Received:
    26,752
    How typical is the sample size of 574 people? Just curious

    I personally think Carson is a kook
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #6
    No Head Games, 1Vegasgirl, juleswheel and 2 others like this.
  7. Divorce Chicken

    Divorce Chicken Willy one plunge VIP

    Reputations:
    34,403
    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2012
    Messages:
    18,016
    Likes Received:
    41,453
    And women too!
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #7
    Dorb and maroon like this.
  8. AllAboutHim Ed

    AllAboutHim Ed #mypurpose VIP

    Reputations:
    17,463
    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2014
    Messages:
    7,735
    Likes Received:
    11,902
    I'd vote for him because he is black, but his religion stuff is downright nutty.
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #8
    nick11 likes this.
  9. ltd86

    ltd86 Racist Banned User

    Reputations:
    0
    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2013
    Messages:
    35,997
    Likes Received:
    35,131
    it's "likely caucus-goers"

    trump brings out a whole new group of people to vote

    he just increased his lead to ten points in the abc/wapo poll yesterday
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #9
    1Vegasgirl likes this.
  10. scoobyla

    scoobyla Well-Known Member

    Reputations:
    19,728
    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2013
    Messages:
    12,939
    Likes Received:
    9,910
    carson is a good man with honest values.
    but he doesnt seem to have any grasp of foriegn policy or how to run a country.
    he will not be the nominee (choosing him ina poll, and choosing him ina ballot are vastly different things)
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #10
    FosterKitten likes this.
  11. Dorb

    Dorb Lovable Old Pig VIP Gold

    Reputations:
    127,830
    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2012
    Messages:
    32,389
    Likes Received:
    33,776
    The beginning of the end for the Donald.:rip2:
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #11
  12. R.P. McMurphy

    R.P. McMurphy Well-Known Member

    Reputations:
    3
    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2012
    Messages:
    41,581
    Likes Received:
    40,974
    ...carson is a fucking kook. respectable as a dr but he doesnt have the right stuff to be prez. a sampling of 574 people cant speak for the entire state. i aint buying it, its a campaign tactic to create buzz. thats how bad the party wants to get rid of trump.
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #12
    FosterKitten, nick11, 1Vegasgirl and 2 others like this.
  13. scoobyla

    scoobyla Well-Known Member

    Reputations:
    19,728
    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2013
    Messages:
    12,939
    Likes Received:
    9,910
    of course they dont, they only hate black dems (and white dems)
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #13
    Dorb likes this.
  14. Dorb

    Dorb Lovable Old Pig VIP Gold

    Reputations:
    127,830
    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2012
    Messages:
    32,389
    Likes Received:
    33,776
    Polls mean nothing at this stage of the game kid.
    Got 9 months till the convention.
    Everything can change in those 9 months.
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #14
    FosterKitten likes this.
  15. ltd86

    ltd86 Racist Banned User

    Reputations:
    0
    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2013
    Messages:
    35,997
    Likes Received:
    35,131
    iowa is 14 weeks away
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #15
    1Vegasgirl likes this.
  16. ltd86

    ltd86 Racist Banned User

    Reputations:
    0
    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2013
    Messages:
    35,997
    Likes Received:
    35,131
    notice it's "likely caucus goers"

    almost every other poll is of republican voters.

    "likely caucus goers" allows the polling company much more discretion to narrow down who they poll, not necessarily in an accurate way (especially with a candidate like trump who should, hopefully, be turning out people who usually don't caucus in the past)
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #16
    1Vegasgirl and FishySausage like this.
  17. chapped

    chapped Well-Known Member

    Reputations:
    12
    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2012
    Messages:
    55,631
    Likes Received:
    61,915
    :haha:
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #17
    Limo Wreck and scoobyla like this.
  18. SouthernListen

    SouthernListen New phone who dis? VIP

    Reputations:
    64,953
    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2012
    Messages:
    46,211
    Likes Received:
    49,733
    Some fun facts and perspective:

    About 120,000 votes are cast.

    About 30% of the state are registered Republicans.

    Only about 20% of registered Republicans vote in this.

    So 6% of eligible voters in the state vote in this.

    Therefore, a candidate who gets 28% of the votes in this caucus can be assured of the support of 1.68% of the state's eligible voters.

    Iowa has a population of only about 3 million.

    You can re-register from Independent or Democrat to Republican to vote in the caucus, "on the spot".

    17 y/o's can vote in the caucus. ( assume they realize they will turn 18 before the election)

    My conclusions would be that a) it would tend to favor candidates the "hard core" Republican types prefer, as most casual Republicans don't bother to vote in it, and b) it's a "small" state in terms of importance, despite its early caucus.

    It's also important to realize that even if Trump has huge leads in polls, those who actually bother to vote in primaries tend to be more mainstream in their preferences.
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #18
    1Vegasgirl likes this.
  19. R.P. McMurphy

    R.P. McMurphy Well-Known Member

    Reputations:
    3
    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2012
    Messages:
    41,581
    Likes Received:
    40,974
    ...they dont caucus until feb 1st so this is just a moment in time.
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #19
    1Vegasgirl likes this.
  20. SouthernListen

    SouthernListen New phone who dis? VIP

    Reputations:
    64,953
    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2012
    Messages:
    46,211
    Likes Received:
    49,733
    A billionaire (ostensibly) and a surgeon.

    They could be here pontificating!
     
    Oct 22, 2015 #20
Page 1 of 10