Discussion in 'The Howard Stern Show' started by BethSucks, Sep 27, 2015.
Same old story for the Chargers, poor line play both offense and defense.
Glad the Seahawks are on TV today. A perfect weekend would be Pete Carroll and a big bottle of Cialis.
The Pats are rolling as usual.
My wife hates him, not,sure why, no connections to USC here.
Pacific TZ teams traveling EAST to play 1pm games is bullshit and has become a BIG problem and disadvantage statistically proven.
There's only THREE 4pm games (that's bullshit too) and ALL the those PTZ teams coming east should be played at 4 like SD & OAK. 10/11/12 games on at 1pm drowning each other out with scattered viewers is assinine!
NY/LI basic NFL is atrociously limited. The NFL is stuck in the blackout network stone age and are doing a VERY good job in blackmailing people to get the NFL Ticket or Red Zone.
SPORTS BETTING ANALYTICS
Is There a Disadvantage for NFL West Coast Teams Traveling East?
BET LABS, NFL
by PJ on OCTOBER 16, 2013
When making predictions, ranking fantasy football players or justifying betting decisions, experts love turning to generic theories to backup their opinions. However, when using these concepts, experts often conveniently forget to back these theories with data and statistics.
Over the last couple of years, we’ve taken it upon ourselves to do the legwork and prove whether mainstream theories are actually based in truth. For example, we busted the myth that cold weather means lower scoring and have also confirmed that NFL teams do play better when coming off a bye.
One trendy concept being used by the media is that NFL West Coast teams traveling east suffer declines in performance. It’s certainly reasonable to hypothesize that the combination of long flights, strange beds and time zone changes confuse internal body clocks and prevent players and teams from performing up to expectations.
With this in mind, we used our Bet Labs data analysis software to examine the theory of West Coast teams traveling east and determine just how truthful it is. To start, we had to first find a way to measure expected performance. Similar to our Monday Night Football analysis, we can’t use straight up wins and losses since they don’t provide a realistic measure of performance. For example, San Diego is traveling to Jacksonville this week as 7.5-point favorites. Since 2003, favorites of -7.5 and greater are 543-108 (83.4%) straight up, so concluding that a San Diego victory alone meant they met expectations would be incorrect.
Instead, we can use against the spread (ATS) records as a much better indicator. It’s safe to assume that the favorite in each matchup is “expected” to be the better team and the actual size of the spread defines “how much better” the favorite is expected to be. Therefore, we would define a 3-point Chargers victory as underperforming since they did not cover the spread. Conversely, a 10-point win would cover the 7.5-point spread, indicating that San Diego outperformed expectations and “played well” against Jacksonville.
With our measure of performance defined, we compiled ATS records for the four NFL teams located in the Pacific Time Zone (San Francisco 49ers, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers and Seattle Seahawks) when traveling to play in the Mountain, Central and Eastern Time Zones.
The table below displays the results, since 2005:
GAME TIME ZONEATS RECORDATS WIN RATE
Interestingly, ATS performance of Pacific Time Zone teams gets progressively worse as they travel further east. Based on these results, we can conclude that West Coast teams don’t meet expectations and therefore “play badly” when traveling to the East Coast.
While we have achieved our original goal by confirming this concept, we decided to now look at this from a betting theory perspective in order to learn how to take advantage going forward. Using the analysis above as a baseline, we also tested other scenarios and found that Pacific Time Zone teams traveling east perform even worse after covering the spread in their previous game.
The table below displays ATS records for Pacific Time Zone teams, coming off an ATS victory in their most recent game, dating back to 2005:
GAME TIME ZONEATS RECORDATS WIN RATE
For the record, this added wrinkle is not related to the teams’ actual travel, but is instead a reflection of betting market overreaction. The betting public tends to focus on recent results and will back teams that covered the spread in their latest game. In turn, oddsmakers react by shading lines, forcing bettors who like these teams to take them at bad numbers.
Sharp bettors wait for these market overreactions and take advantage by betting against the Pacific Time Zone teams, knowing they only cover the spread at a rate of 29.6%.
The Colts suck, hope they still feel comfortable going with Luck over Manning.
I hate USC (except for their dental school grads) and Petey does kind of have an asshole vibe, but he's so handsome I can let that slide.
10 a.m. NFL Games: The Bane of the West Coast Team
By Ryan Flieder, Contributor
We all know the feeling. It's a few hours from midday, but you haven't yet woken up to full capacity. Maybe you accidentally put the sugar for your coffee back into the fridge and put the cream in the cabinet. Maybe you start silently hoping the kicker misses the field goal only to notice that it was your team kicking it. Maybe you call your boss or, Lord forbid, your wife the wrong name. For whatever reason most of us just don't seem right in the late mornings.
I never liked 10 a.m. games. For any East Coasters reading this, all those 1 p.m. "afternoon games" scheduled for you are at 10 a.m. for us. This means that in any given year, a Pacific Time zoner can expect to be up for kickoff at 10 a.m. for as many as six of our eight road games. Forget hot wings and beer, we watch our road games while eating scrambled eggs and drinking coffee.
I'm going to be upfront. I'm a Seahawks fan. But for today, my allegiances lie not with the Seahawks, but with all West Coast teams, because I spent this morning satiating my curiosity.
It always seems like the Seahawks get destroyed when we play our games at 10 a.m. We go into Cowboys Stadium or Lucas Oil Field and get absolutely blown out, but that's expected. What's not expected is usgetting blown out by the Bills. A fake field goal? A fake field goal? It's like the Seahawks were totally caught sleeping.
So I kicked open a spreadsheet and started filling in wins and losses for six teams: the Seahawks, 49ers, Chargers, Raiders, Cardinals, and Broncos. Over the last five years, I looked at their overall wins and losses, then wins and losses at 10 a.m. games (which I suppose are technically 11 a.m. games for Arizona and Denver).
It turns out that over the last five years, those six teams have an overall win percentage of 47.71 percent. It also turns out that their win percentage for 10 a.m. games drops to 35.56 percent. That's over a 12 percent differential.
Then again, 10 a.m. games are always road games, so maybe it's not fair to judge overall win percentage to a particular road win percentage. So I also typed in the percentages for road games that aren't at 10 a.m., and subtracted to find the win percentage for road games not played at 10 a.m. Perhaps that would be a lot closer?
Actually, that number is 45.71 percent. That's still a more than 10 percent differential, and that's only comparing road games to road games!
If your first thought is, "Well yeah, but that must be because they play against great East coast teams," don't forget that for as many of those games played against teams like the Colts or Steelers, at least as many are played against teams like the Bills, Rams, or Buccaneers. This is a massive disadvantage for West Coast teams.
Now I'm going to say two things that may seem contradictory: The San Fransisco 49ers are the best team in the NFC West this year, and they will not win their division.
Why? Because the schedule has the 49ers playing six games at 10 a.m. this season, while the Cardinals only play four, and the Seahawks only play three games that early. In the AFC I can also predict that the Chargers will have an excellent year not only because they have built a good team, but because they only play two games at 10 a.m.!
I'm sorry to tell you this. I honestly have no idea why there isn't more outcry at the blatant disadvantage caused by this scheduling. I don't know why Roger Goodell scours to punish a player like Brian Cushing whomight have used steroids, giving his team an unfair advantage, and yet this giant differential in 10 a.m. and non-10 a.m. games goes without anyone batting an eye.
So why schedule these games at 10 a.m.? Is it convenience? Money? Ignorant TV executives? I don't know, and frankly I don't care. All I know is that our teams are getting the short end of the stick through bad scheduling.
If you're angry, good. I am. If your fanhood lies with a West Coast team, you should be too.
Big Ben out for the rest of the game with leg/knee/ankle injury
Cowboys shit the bed in the 2nd half. Falcons lead 39-28, 4 minutes to go
The Chargers are always susceptible to that, they had a 35-0 loss to Miami last year. This game was similar, unprepared and undisciplined play, everyone will say injuries hurt them and I'll be banned from the Chargers message board again for saying good teams find a way to overcome injuries.
Exactly, and SD was SOOOO much better than that and MIA. I think it was Steve Young that said it's basically like playing perpetually hung over.
I've seen a lot of epic collapses from the Dallas Cowboys as a delusional and long suffering fan, but that was just about the worst second half of football I have ever seen by a team. I went from thinking "Hey, we're going to make it this season!" to "hoo boy, I'll just check the scores on the games for the rest of the season."
Eagles escape The Meadowlands with their first win of the year and move to 10-0 all time against Booey's J-e-t-s.
Left the Browns game early. No end in sight for this clusterfuck of an organization.