Oil Down Hard Today. This is Getting Interesting.

Discussion in 'The Howard Stern Show' started by MyLazyHand, Aug 19, 2015.

  1. MyLazyHand

    MyLazyHand Russia and France Know What to Do

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    WTI Crude for September is down nearly 5% today.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude oil - electronic


    The price per barrel is down to $40.64 as of 3:42 PM EDT.

    Gasoline prices for October delivery are down 7 cents. They're still almost 20 cents over the lows from the early Spring 2015 period.


    This is great news for us who want to save money on gasoline, but the shit is hitting the fan right now in Venezuela, Russia, Saudi Arabia and other friendly places. Not that I want all of them to be too comfortable, but crazy things happen when countries go broke.

    I doubt that Venezuela survives intact for 12 more months. With their gross mismanagement, they're probably pumping oil above cost at this point.


    I rented a VW Passat for a business trip yesterday. I swear to you it got 47MPG on the highway, and I drove 700 miles before I needed a fill-up. I only spent $40.50 in gasoline to make the trip!
     
  2. Droog

    Droog Well-Known Member VIP

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    Low oil prices doesn't mean shit when the refineries pull Enron style supply problems. We're paying $3/gallon here in Michigan.
     
  3. MyLazyHand

    MyLazyHand Russia and France Know What to Do

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    The Whiting Refinery is down, and you're being hosed because of it. You'll see a huge price drop when it's back online in a month.

    I paid something like $1.79 per gallon near Detroit in February.
     
  4. MutteringJohn

    MutteringJohn Well-Known Member

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    Pump prices have not tracked drop in oil price.
     
  5. MyLazyHand

    MyLazyHand Russia and France Know What to Do

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    True, but that'll change once summer ends. I had a whole thread about getting screwed on the spread.

    Today's action looks like capitulation to me. We'll see.
     
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  6. Wesmantooth

    Wesmantooth VIP Extreme Gold

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    TDI FTW
     
  7. Divorce Chicken

    Divorce Chicken white punk on dope VIP

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    What's driving it down? Over supply, lack of demand or both?
     
  8. tradioguy69

    tradioguy69 VP of Larry, Inc.

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    I really hope you are right about the prices. I am sick of paying 2.79 a gallon when oil is at 6.5 year lows. Seems like everytime the big drop in gas is coming, another incident occurs.
     
  9. MyLazyHand

    MyLazyHand Russia and France Know What to Do

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    A couple of additional notes: U.S. crude oil production refuses to drop much. It's maintaining a level of 9.3mm barrels per day. In other words, at least for now, low oil prices are not stopping oil production as the Saudis hoped. For now.

    Analysts say that WTI crude oil has support at a price of $40, but if it drops below that, look out. No support in the high 30's.

    Reformulated gasoline (not what I track normally) dropped 9 cents today on the NYMEX. Shoot, that'll save me nearly $2 per fill up on my SUV.
     
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  10. Robert Higgins

    Robert Higgins Well-Known Member VIP

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    [​IMG]
     
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  11. MyLazyHand

    MyLazyHand Russia and France Know What to Do

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    Steady oversupply. Refineries have been running over 100% of capacity all summer, and Americans are driving more miles than ever. The BP Whiting IN refinery is broken, and that's a huge refinery. They're not using any crude while they affect repairs.

    The bottom line is that the USA is producing massive amounts of oil, and the money-hungry countries are pumping out more also, even at really low prices.

    Some analysts say that oil prices will never be high again, because as soon at the price jumps back to $75/barrel, the US drillers already have thousands of wells in place which are built but not operating at low prices.
     
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  12. Droog

    Droog Well-Known Member VIP

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    But like the rolling blackouts, we get rolling refinery failures. Once ours is back, it won't be long before another goes down. The funny thing is that there is no shortage of gasoline. Every station is stocked. Demand is being met and it isn't being curtailed by prices. The roads are no less crowded at $3 than they were at $2. Another evil is the custom blend bullshit. There are about 20 different blends of gasoline used in America. It goes beyond summer/winter blends. I'd be fine with warm weather, cold weather blends, but they take it way too far and it pigeon holes states to certain refineries. If a refinery in the midwest goes down, you can't just get gas from the northeast. The differences aren't that great, but each state adopted its own version. I think the oil companies probably wrote the legislation.
     
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  13. quitefrankly

    quitefrankly Well-Known Member

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    bought 200 gallons of diesel today 2.49 per gallon

    mid michigan
     
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  14. MyLazyHand

    MyLazyHand Russia and France Know What to Do

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    And those lows only took place when everything went to hell in late 2008. The crude oil prices were only low for 2.5 months and then the prices bounced.

    You have to go back to 2004 not considering inflation, to get a steady comparison for these prices.
    Crude got expensive when Bush's team hollowed out the value of the dollar. They did that to increase exports and bump the value of homes, so people could use them as ATM's by getting second loans against inflated values.

    That worked for a few years until the housing market collapsed under the weight of so many bad loans tied to crazy valuations.
     
  15. MyLazyHand

    MyLazyHand Russia and France Know What to Do

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    You must have a big SUV.
     
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  16. tradioguy69

    tradioguy69 VP of Larry, Inc.

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    Bring on $1.50 a gallon gas prices!
     
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  17. MyLazyHand

    MyLazyHand Russia and France Know What to Do

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    I don't know that the refinery outages are a conspiracy.

    I worked at a big refinery. When you run those things wide open 24/7, shit breaks. And sometimes big things break, and other stuff blows up when the big things break. You generally don't hear news about regular fires at refineries because they're not unusual. But a decent fire can do a lot of damage to production.

    The USA hasn't built a new refinery in what, 40 years? We're driving more miles than ever, and using more fuel than ever.
     
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  18. DogStar69

    DogStar69 Well-Known Member

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    Some stations have dropped prices near me, others have not. I filled up taking by dogs home from the dog park for $2.34, where I usually fill up, that normally has low prices is still up to $2.59.
     
  19. MyLazyHand

    MyLazyHand Russia and France Know What to Do

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    The NYMEX closes out its day for crude trading at 5PM. It's still dropping, down 20 cents since I started this thread a little while ago.

    Tomorrow's "day" starts trading at 7PM EDT. It's the last day for the September contract, and things could get wild.
     
  20. Tipsey Russell

    Tipsey Russell VIP Extreme Gold

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    I filled up my Honda the other day
    I can't recall what it cost
    but I did get some beer and candy also
     
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