Politics The demographics of 2016 look brutal for Republicans

Discussion in 'The Howard Stern Show' started by dawg, Aug 19, 2015.

  1. dawg

    dawg In The Dog House Staff Member

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    If you want to understand why the debates over the Confederate flag and Donald Trump’s immigration outbursts have so many senior Republicans reaching for their acid reflux pills, take a look at this bracing new demographic analysis from Charlie Cook and David Wasserman.

    Cook and Wasserman note that historical patterns should favor the GOP in the 2016 presidential election, because the same party rarely keeps the White House after previously holding it for two terms. But that advantage will be swimming upstream against these demographics:

    The modern GOP’s increasing reliance on a shrinking pool of older, white, and working-class voters — and its failure to attract nonwhite voters — would seem to present an enormous obstacle to the eventual Republican nominee. In 1980, when nonwhite voters were just 12 percent of the electorate, Ronald Reagan won 56 percent of white voters and was elected in a landslide. But in 2012, when nonwhite voters accounted for 28 percent of the electorate, Mitt Romney took 59 percent of white voters — and lost the presidential race by 4 percentage points. Without a total brand makeover, how can Republicans expect to prevail with an even more diverse electorate in 2016?…

    If the electorate evolves in sync with the Census Bureau’s estimates of the adult citizen population (admittedly, a big if), the white share of the electorate would drop from 72 percent in 2012 to 70 percent in 2016; the African-American share would remain stable at 13 percent; the Latino portion would grow from 10 percent to 11 percent; and the Asian/other segment would increase from 5 percent to 6 percent. If the 2012 election had been held with that breakdown (keeping all other variables stable), President Obama would have won by 5.4 percentage points rather than by his actual 3.85-point margin.

    In addition, the group with which the GOP does best — whites without college degrees — is the only one poised to shrink in 2016. President Obama won just 36 percent of these voters in 2012, while 42 percent of white voters with college degrees pulled the lever for him. But if the electorate changes in line with census estimates, the slice of college-educated whites will grow by 1 point, to 37 percent of all voters, while the portion of whites without degrees will shrink 3 points, to just 33 percent of the total.

    In other words, the GOP doesn’t just have a growing problem with nonwhites; it has a shrinkage problem as well, as conservative white seniors are supplanted by college-educated millennials with different cultural attitudes.

    Political scientist Michael McDonald, who analyzes voting and demographic patterns for the U.S. Elections Project, has been taking a hard look at the demographics of 2014 and 2016, and he agrees with Cook and Wasserman about the declining white vote share.

    “The ongoing changes in the demography of the U.S. as a whole, and within key battleground states, are not favorable towards the Republican Party,” McDonald emails. “From the mid-1990s up to the present, the non-Hispanic white share of the electorate dropped ten percentage points. Preliminary analysis of the 2014 elections indicates the slide is not abating, confirming Census Bureau projections of the country’s changing face.”

    There are plenty of caveats. There is the aforementioned historical pattern favoring the non-incumbent party. As Ed Kilgore notes, it is hardly certain that Hillary Clinton will be able to pump up turnout among core Dem voter groups to Obama levels. And as Cook and Wasserman also note, if the 2016 GOP nominee can manage just marginal improvements over Mitt Romney across the demographic groups, he can win. As they note, demographics are “no guarantee” of a Dem victory.

    Still, even these caveats suggest what a gamble it might be for Republicans to count on winning the White House without a serious effort to improve the GOP’s appeal among non-whites. After all, it’s possible Clinton could improve on Obama’s performance among whites, even if blue collar white voters continue to back Republicans at high levels. As Ron Brownstein has noted, polls are already showing her outperforming among a key subset, white college-educated women. What’s more, a contrast is developing between Clinton and the Republicans on a number of issues — gay rights, health care, climate change, even possibly a negotiated settlement with Iran — that could help her among college educated whites in general. (The Clinton camp reportedly thinks she can also make a play for blue collar white women, which seems at least possible.)

    It would be absolute folly for Democrats to get complacent about their seeming demographic edge. Still, for the above reasons, I wouldn’t be all that surprised if GOP establishment types make a huge push for Jeb Bush in the not too distant future. As I’ve noted, Bush, with his Mexican wife, Latino-American kids, and fluency in Spanish, can plausibly argue that only he combines leadership heft with a genuine opportunity to improve the GOP’s cultural appeal to nonwhites. And imagine the panic that could set in among GOP elites if Donald Trump keeps it up, and garners cheers at a GOP debate when he calls for an alligator-stocked moat along the Mexican border?

    Of course, whether GOP primary voters will share in that panic is another question entirely.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...graphics-of-2016-look-brutal-for-republicans/
     
  2. N Copter

    N Copter Shot Dead Banned User

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  3. ltd86

    ltd86 Racist Banned User

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    White vote: 70%

    If Trump is the nominee, he will crush because R's wont stay home like they did in 08 and 12.

    He'll get a higher share of the AA vote because the blacks love Trump.

    Guarantee he'll get at least 30% of the Hispanic vote too
     
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  4. ltd86

    ltd86 Racist Banned User

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    The problem for Dems, as illustrated by the 2014 midterms, is that white voters are turning against them in droves.

    Also, blacks wont be showing up for hillary or biden or sanders like they did for barry o
     
  5. SouthernListen

    SouthernListen I don't follow the crowd. Sorry about that. VIP

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    Funny how the "anti-racists" trumpet that changing demographics are the path to democrat victory. Not good ideas, not persuasion. Identity politics.
     
  6. dawg

    dawg In The Dog House Staff Member

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    How is the GOP going to reach the modern progressive millennial population? that in a couple of years will grow by a million more or so. right now its 86 million strong, larger than the baby boomer generation.

    Keep polishing the brass on that sinking ship though :hw:
     
  7. ltd86

    ltd86 Racist Banned User

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    You're a klansman if you want a whiter America.

    If you cheer for the collapse of the white population, you're a kind-hearted hero
     
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  8. N Copter

    N Copter Shot Dead Banned User

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    Dude, you are a fucking racist. You detest white people. Just admit it.
     
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  9. Ganggreen87

    Ganggreen87 Well-Known Member

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    A better percentage would be those that actually vote. While,whites only make up 70 percent of the 2016 demographic this block represents the highest percentage of voters and it isn't close. Blacks vote about 11 percent while whites are closer to 64. The number change horizon is probably another 40 years before minorities can truly compete. Now there vote can be a game changer when added up to a canidate

    God this sounds like a Daniel Carver post
     
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  10. dawg

    dawg In The Dog House Staff Member

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    How the fuck do you get that from a comment on generations? You have a screw loose dude.
     
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  11. ltd86

    ltd86 Racist Banned User

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    Most recent election the Democrats got killed. Most presidents get reelected, so dont let 8 years of Obama go to your head. President Trump is going to be taking the reigns shortly.:usasmile:
     
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  12. dawg

    dawg In The Dog House Staff Member

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    We shall see. very soon.
     
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  13. Willowglen

    Willowglen Lookin thru the glass ceiling & up Stephs skirt VIP

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    Actually the problems with the midterms are the same problem with every midterm election. Low turnout for all except the die hard drone voters who vote for who they are told to vote for whether it's against their own interests or not who are mostly Republicans.
     
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  14. DTF296

    DTF296 Well-Known Member

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  15. Willowglen

    Willowglen Lookin thru the glass ceiling & up Stephs skirt VIP

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    They got killed in 2010 too. Who is President again?
     
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  16. Shortwave98

    Shortwave98 A-Number 1 Banned User

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    Not Goddamn soon enough.:ufacepalm::ufacepalm::ufacepalm:
    Do you think ltd is up for a wager?
     
  17. dawg

    dawg In The Dog House Staff Member

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    Just for bragging rights i hope, we cant do real wagers.
     
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  18. Shortwave98

    Shortwave98 A-Number 1 Banned User

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    Hell, when I see one of his posts about trump I brag anyway.:p
     
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  19. OV

    OV Rapscallion

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    For me unless Kasich gets the GOP nomination or a dark horse Dem candidate like Jim Webb surfaces to defeat Hillary and/or Biden/Sanders, I will again write in my deceased dad as I have in other elections where the "lesser of the two evils is still 'too evil' " I've learned my lesson. :dontknow:
     
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  20. Ving

    Ving Well-Known Member

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    This from the dumb racist named N*gger Copter.
     
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