Politics *****Today's Presidential Poll Discussion****

Discussion in 'The Howard Stern Show' started by BethSucks, Oct 27, 2015.

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  1. BethSucks

    BethSucks Well-Known Member Staff Member

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    CBS/NYT Poll: Ben Carson edges out Donald Trump

    By Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Anthony Salvanto, and Fred Backus

    Ben Carson has surpassed Donald Trump and now narrowly leads the Republican field in the race for the nomination in the latest national CBS News/New York Times Poll.

    Twenty-six percent of Republican primary voters back Carson, giving him a four-point edge over Trump (22 percent). Support for Carson has quadrupled since August.

    The rest of the Republican presidential candidates lag far behind in single digits. Marco Rubio is now in third place (eight percent), followed by Jeb Bush (seven percent) and Carly Fiorina (seven percent). All other candidates are at four percent or lower

    Carson has made gains across many key Republican groups. In a reversal from earlier this month, he is now ahead of Trump among women and is running neck and neck with him among men. Carson's support among evangelicals has risen and he now leads Trump by more than 20 points with this group.

    Carson performs well among conservative Republicans and those who identify as Tea partiers. Trump does well with moderates and leads Carson among those without a college degree - although Trump had a larger advantage with non-college graduates earlier this month.

    But the state of the race can change. Seven in 10 Republican primary voters say it is too early to say for sure that their mind is made up about which candidate they will support. This percentage is about what it was at a similar point in the Republican race four years ago.

    While Carson may have moved to the top of the pack, Trump's supporters are more firm in their candidate choice than Carson's. More than half of Trump voters say their minds are made up about which candidate to back, compared to 19 percent who are currently backing Carson.

    Paying Attention to the Campaign

    Forty-three percent of registered voters are now paying a lot of attention to the campaign - similar to earlier this month - but up from 36 percent in September. More are paying a lot of attention now, compared to this point in time in the last two presidential election cycles.

    Republican voters are more likely to be tuning into the campaign than Democrats.

    This poll was conducted by telephone October 21-25, 2015 among a random sample of 1,289 adults nationwide, including 1,136 registered voters. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News and The New York Times by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

    The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables.

    The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly.

    An oversample of registered voters who are Republican was interviewed for a total of 512 interviews with Republican registered voters. The results were then weighted in proportion to the adult population. The margin of error for the Republican registered voters is 7 percentage points.
     
  2. TallTyrion

    TallTyrion Triggered like a mofo VIP

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    the fix is in in both parties, Trump and Bernie have a 0.0 chance of getting the nomination even if they get the popular votes in these states.

    These polls are a disinformation program. Carson has an even less chance of winning.
     
  3. R.P. McMurphy

    R.P. McMurphy Well-Known Member

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    ...thats funny. ben carson cant draw flies at an appearence but trump is packing statiums. :bigthink:
     
  4. kicksave7

    kicksave7 Well-Known Member

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    This is great....Trump must be shitting his pants. The sparks are gonna fly at the debate this week.
     
  5. ltd86

    ltd86 Racist Banned User

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    Poll: Trump leads Carson by 14 points nationwide

    [​IMG]



    Donald Trump is well ahead of the pack heading into Wednesday night’s third Republican presidential debate, according to a new poll.

    Trump has a 14-point lead over his nearest competitor before the contest in Boulder, Colo., according to a One America News Network survey.

    Pollsters found support for the real estate mogul at 35.6 percent, compared with 21.7 percent for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson. Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) trails the pair, with 10.7 percent.
    “It’s all Trump going into the third debate,” One America CEO Robert Herring Sr. said in a statement Tuesday morning.

    “Mr. Trump’s continued top national ranking will also make him the candidate to target Wednesday night,” he added.

    Former Gov. Jeb Bush (Fla.) ranks fourth in the new poll, with 7.6 percent. Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina follow, with 5.9 percent to her 5.7 percent, respectively.

    The poll questioned 906 registered Republicans and has a 3-point margin of error.



    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...-poll-trump-leads-carson-14-points-nationwide
     
  6. BethSucks

    BethSucks Well-Known Member Staff Member

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    I'm not a fan of either one but I think these polls show a trend away from Trump more than an embracing of Carson. This one and the one in Iowa yesterday both stated the change was among all demographic groups not just one group that is favoring a specific policy position.
     
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  7. GaryPuppet

    GaryPuppet Well-Known Member

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  8. ltd86

    ltd86 Racist Banned User

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  9. BethSucks

    BethSucks Well-Known Member Staff Member

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    Poor Donald doesn't get it:

    Washington (CNN)Donald Trump said he doesn't understand his recent drop in polls, but he continued his attacks on Ben Carson, who has knocked him from the top spot in Iowa and -- in at least one survey -- nationwide among Republicans.

    "I don't get it," Trump said on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" on Tuesday. "I'm going there (to Iowa) actually today and I have tremendous crowds and I have tremendous love in the room and, you know, we seem to have hit a chord. But some of these polls coming out, I don't quite get it. "

    Trump kept up his attacks on Carson, who is beating him handily in a series of four polls from Iowa and as of Tuesday morning overtook the top spot nationwide in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.

    "You know Ben wants to knock out Medicare. I heard that over the weekend, he wants to abolish Medicare. And I think, you know, abolishing Medicare. I don't think you're going to get away with that one. And it's actually a program that's worked," Trump said.

    RELATED: Poll: Ben Carson leads Donald Trump by double digits in Iowa

    Carson has previously said that he wanted to end traditional Medicare in its current form, but wrote over the weekend in a Facebook question-and-answer post that he would not end the highly popular program.

    "The next question is about Medicare. Annette from Ohio wants to know if I really want to abolish Medicare as was reported in a Washington politician tabloid. The answer is of course NO. I am interested in how we can both save money and deliver better service to our nation's seniors," Carson wrote.

    Trump also hit Carson for previously supporting abortion rights.

    "Ben, he was pro-abortion not so long ago, as everybody has told me personally. I don't know, but that's what I'm told, I've been told. And all of the sudden he's so hard on abortion, under no circumstances, virtually, can there be exceptions," Trump said.

    Carson has had a mixed record on abortion throughout his career. As a pediatric neurosurgeon, he would refer women to abortion providers in some cases, even though he personally opposed abortions, according to a 1992 article in The Baltimore Sun. He has since said he's opposed abortion in nearly all instances and compared it to "slavery" this weekend.

    Trump also struggled to explain the surge in Carson's popularity, but was confident that he would be picked apart in the national spotlight.

    "Well, I don't get it," he said of Carson's rise. "You look at different things having to do with Ben and there's a lot of contradiction and a lot of questions. We'll have to see. One thing I know about a front-runner: you get analyzed 15 different ways from China."
     
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  10. Anyonenow

    Anyonenow Well-Known Member

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  11. slash2015

    slash2015 Well-Known Member

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    Republican backers have been and will push for carson ...best way to attract minority voters. Trump is really throwing a wrench in their plans and these polls are inaccurate. Carson is an idiot plain and simple with no business, foreign policy, and negotiation experience. He was a dr so be a doctor....also pushing him will give more legitmecy to repeal obama care which will help insurance companies rip people off down the road
     
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  12. Robert Higgins

    Robert Higgins Well-Known Member VIP

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    Douchebag Donald said this morning that he "took a class on polling at Wharton".

    That just burns me up that he continues to mislead, an is never challenged, implying that he went to the Wharton School of Business.

    He went to UPenn and majored in business. Doesn't have an MBA.

    Fuck him and his comb over.
     
  13. Anyonenow

    Anyonenow Well-Known Member

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    I'm concerned for ltd
    Here is the Suicide Help line phone # 516-922-9463
     
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  14. Slow

    Slow All The Pieces Matter DawgShed News

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    I just saw this on fox news. The fox broadcasters are practicically cuming in their pants. They are so happy to see trump slip. The bias of these news outlets is disturbing.
     
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  15. MrAdamapple

    MrAdamapple Shit Mult Banned User

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    I don't trust the polls. You can 'cheat' and poll a certain demographic to get the result you want. By now, the Pollsters have a good idea on who supports trump. He is high amongst white men, and low amongst Latinos. By polling areas known to be high in Latino population, you can make Trump go down. Nowhere in any news it says which group has had erosion of Trump support. He is still drawing huge crowds and Ben's crowd have not dramatically increased. Smoke and Mirrors by establishment.
     
  16. BethSucks

    BethSucks Well-Known Member Staff Member

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    He'll be OK, Trump will pop up on a new reality show in a few months and he can watch him there.
     
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  17. Dorb

    Dorb Lovable Old Pig VIP Gold

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    Ya beat me to th punch. Poor Itd86 LOL
     
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  18. Calloused Shins

    Calloused Shins Well-Known Member

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    Fixed
     
  19. Snort

    Snort Something witty Gold

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  20. Snort

    Snort Something witty Gold

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    I don't like trump at all.... but I think I'd rather him win than this Carson nutjob. This fucking moron thinks the earth is 6000 years old. He's against abortion in every case. The religious fanatics scare the fuck out of me.

    I wonder why Carson is gaining?
     
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