Politics Townhall: Ted Cruz Will Be The GOP Nominee

Discussion in 'The Howard Stern Show' started by dawg, Jan 17, 2016.

  1. dawg

    dawg In The Dog House Staff Member

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    Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” But here goes. Barring a major political earthquake, Ted Cruz will be the GOP nominee later this year.

    As the primaries get under way, two or three candidates will quickly emerge. Based on the voting blocks which are apparent in the current polling, and their likely moves as the options narrow, the most likely result is a Cruz win, perhaps by a landslide.

    With a strong anti-establishment sentiment among GOP voters, 65% are going for one of the opposition candidates, either Donald Trump (35%), Ted Cruz (20%), or Ben Carson (10%), according to recent RCP averages. These voters are angry that the Republicans have done so little to resist Obama and advance a conservative agenda. They remember how establishment candidates McCain and Romney fared in 2008 and 2012. They will not be appeased.

    That leaves only 35% for the GOP establishment candidates to fight over, led by Marco Rubio (now 11%), Chris Christie (5%), and Jeb Bush (3%). Beyond these three, nobody has more than 3%. There is no path to victory for any of them, with the possible exception of Rubio. Some might question whether Rubio should be considered as part of the establishment, but rightly or wrongly, many voters think so.

    Now back to the opposition candidates. Trump and Carson are acceptable to many opposition voters because they are not tainted by any of the party failures of the past eight years. Cruz qualifies by virtue of having stood up against what he calls the “Washington cartel.”

    Currently at 35%, Trump has too many negatives to go much higher, but he can go lower. Voters not already in his camp are truly anti-Trump. They love to watch him scorn the media, but his screwball remarks make them nervous about November. Nominating an unelectable Trump would forfeit the best opportunity to elect the first conservative president since Ronald Reagan. Can you say “President Hillary Clinton?”

    Furthermore, Trump has no history as a conservative and nobody can predict what he might do in office. He is a risk that most GOP voters — currently 65% — are smart enough not to take.

    Can Trump’s support collapse? Yes. As his supporters take a closer look at his antics on the campaign trail, many will ultimately conclude prudence demands an electable conservative, not a bombastic contrarian. But they won’t go for any of the establishment candidates; clearly, they will go to either Cruz or Carson.

    Now down to 10%, Carson’s weaknesses (e.g., lack of experience) have been exposed. Ask any business owner, “Would you let the smartest, most good-hearted doctor in town come in and take over your business?” The answer will be “No.” Managing the US Government is a much bigger and more complex job than managing any corporation. It’s no place for a trainee.

    That leaves Cruz. He can pick up votes from Trump and Carson, but Trump can’t get more than he already has.

    What about the other 35%, those not yet in one of the opposition camps? Where will they go? Will they stick with their favorite also-ran, or will they switch to a more viable alternative? It depends on how frightened of Trump they are.

    Establishment voters may not like Cruz, but they fear a Trump nomination. If Trump is still threatening, many will decide, perhaps at the last minute, to vote for Cruz as the most viable alternative.

    Cruz has another advantage, and that is organization. He has raised more money than any other GOP candidate. According to media reports, his organization is much more developed than is Trump’s. Look for him to outperform the pre-election polling. Look for Trump to underperform.

    There is one caveat. Rubio could challenge in a three-way race if the opposition voters split evenly between Trump and Cruz, but he would have to run the table in picking up establishment voters, now hopelessly split among 8+ candidates. It’s a longshot at best. It depends on the level of fear. If Rubio gets close, Trump voters could run to Cruz because they perceive Rubio to be soft on immigration. If Trump stays close, Rubio voters could run to Cruz because they know Trump would be unelectable in November. Advantage Cruz.

    In summary, Trump is maxed out and will decline as his voters are sobered up by thoughts of a November disaster. Cruz can pick up voters from every other camp, as people focus more and more on the candidates and the realistic alternatives. Cruz is more electable in November, has better organization, and will attract both opposition and establishment GOP voters. He has momentum, and his victory in Iowa will provide another boost. Rubio could challenge, but Trump and Cruz would have to split evenly and Rubio would have to capture all of the establishment voters. Nobody else can come close.

    Cruz wins, possibly in a landslide.

    http://townhall.com/columnists/flet...uz-will-be-the-gop-nominee-n2102309/page/full
     
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  2. sstressed

    sstressed enhancement toker VIP

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    i want what they're smoking!
     
  3. Daveindiego

    Daveindiego Confirmed Internet Legend Gold

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    And that means Hillary is guaranteed the White House. :yes:
     
  4. dawg

    dawg In The Dog House Staff Member

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    Don't underestimate Ted Cruz, He is very popular in Texas. One needs Texas for success.
     
  5. sstressed

    sstressed enhancement toker VIP

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    yeah, i've seen a lot of elections and it can get pretty weird!

    but underestimating trump is not a good idea.

    we shall see! :)



    it would be nice if all these people only had like 3 months or so to get picked and hold the election. these marathons are disgusting. cable news makes it worse than ever.
     
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  6. aquadog

    aquadog Well-Known Member

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    Cruz is creepy and weird. I seriously hope this doesn't happen.
     
  7. potroast

    potroast Well-Known Member

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    Cruz certainly would push the independent vote to the left.
     
  8. Willowglen

    Willowglen Lookin thru the glass ceiling & up Stephs skirt VIP

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    Bob Dole, John McCain and Mitt Romney all won Texas.


    Ted Cruz guarantees a Democrat in the WH until 2020
     
  9. dawg

    dawg In The Dog House Staff Member

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    Just forwarding the latest headlines to you guys.
     
  10. dawg

    dawg In The Dog House Staff Member

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    True.
     
  11. R.P. McMurphy

    R.P. McMurphy Well-Known Member

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    ...i think there are a couple of combinations that dont require winning texas. yes you have 38 delegates but cali has 55. there are combinations to win before you even get to cali. sometimes ohio comes down to the must win state. i dont remember directly but i doubt obama won texas or am i wrong?
     
  12. Turtle Man

    Turtle Man Hello Darling Gold

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    The delegates. Super delegates will vote Cruz.
    Trump is toast unfortunately
     
  13. sstressed

    sstressed enhancement toker VIP

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    and we appreciate it. i mostly avoid news channels and learn a lot hanging out here.
     
  14. dawg

    dawg In The Dog House Staff Member

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    Its been a very long time since Texas was blue, yes Obama won without Texas but Trump will not turn California red.
     
  15. potroast

    potroast Well-Known Member

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    :ohno:
     
  16. dawg

    dawg In The Dog House Staff Member

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    Townhall is about as conservative as you can get. If you read the comments on that article over there the people seem to be very happy with article.

    Cruz stands a very good chance of picking up Jebs , rubio and Carson voters.
     
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  17. señor pedro

    señor pedro El Chocha Master Bee Ay Pii Gold

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    Los democratas no necesitan a Texas para ganar la presidencia. :grad:
     
  18. R.P. McMurphy

    R.P. McMurphy Well-Known Member

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    ...cali voted regan for governor and president. hillary is does not seem that strong this time around and bernie is a pipedream. it will be interesting to see what happens in iowa i think it will be bernie and trump winning there.
     
  19. dawg

    dawg In The Dog House Staff Member

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    sstressed likes this.
  20. tired

    tired Well-Known Member

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    Uh not for nothing but he looks like an intolerant scumbag, back room thief, right Out of casting 101.
     
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