News Trump Is Right: Time to get Tough on China

Discussion in 'The Howard Stern Show' started by rory, Aug 19, 2015.

  1. rory

    rory Well-Known Member

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    First it was the Soviet Union. Then Japan. More recently, China would “inevitably” supplant the U.S. as the world’s number one superpower. Such has been the constant drumbeat from those who chronically overestimate our rivals and fail to appreciate what it is – the special sauce of freedom, individualism and opportunity -- that makes this country great. Ronald Reagan made no such mistake. He capitalized on the profound weaknesses of the USSR’s dysfunctional economy and brought a once-threatening adversary to its knees.

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    Today, we have an opportunity to rein in China’s territorial ambitions and its chronic trampling of international law. China is in trouble, and the U.S. consumer is key to its renewed success. President Obama will shortly host China’s leader Xi Jinping. Let’s hope he takes advantage of China’s current turmoil to press our national interest -- demanding an end to cyber intrusions and widespread counterfeiting, for instance -- in addition to seeking cooperation on an environmental agreement that he views as key to his legacy.

    Related: China’s Currency Devaluation Brings Stocks to a ‘Death Cross’

    As their leaders have acknowledged, China’s economic model, dependent on cheap labor and exports, is broken. Beijing’s solution – pivoting to a consumer economy -- has taken a big hit from its collapsing stock market. Meanwhile, their ham-fisted efforts to manipulate their financial markets and their currency have put their ascendance as a global financial power in doubt. The current leadership has crushed dissent and nascent liberties, reasserting central control. Worst of all – just like Japan, China is facing a demographic cliff. Donald Trump is right: we do not have to kowtow to China.

    China is slowing down. Insiders in Hong Kong are whispering that growth will be only one to two percent this year – a far cry from the 7 percent target set a few months ago and the 7.4 percent recorded in 2014, a 24-year low. It also falls short of the 7 percent growth the government claimed for the second quarter – a highly questionable assertion.

    Consider the data points: exports in July down 8.3 percent year-over-year, car sales down 6.6 percent, and imports down 8.1 percent. Does that look like an economy growing at 7 percent?

    Historically, Chinese authorities were frantic to maintain growth above 7 percent because they tied job creation to social stability. Each year, millions of young workers migrated from the countryside to urban areas, looking for work; exports provided those jobs.

    Related: Blame China for Your Costly Lobster Roll


    Today, thanks to decades of China’s one-child rule, the country’s labor force is shrinking. It is expected to drop modestly (less than 1 percent) this year, but then to tumble at a sharper rate beyond 2020. China’s labor advantage has tipped over, with low unemployment and increasingly restive workers driving wages higher (albeit from a very low base). In response, manufacturers are moving operations to lower-cost countries such as Vietnam and Thailand.

    This trend inspired Beijing’s 2011 commitment to shift from an economy focused on exports to one driven by the consumer. The change was to capitalize on the emerging middle class; it failed to recognize that the Chinese people need more than money to bolster the economy. They need to trust the government, and the future; lack of confidence has resulted in China’s savings rate being amongst the highest in the world.

    The government also aspired to become a global financial powerhouse. The authorities successfully launched the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to compete with western-affiliated development banks, and broadened investment opportunities for the Chinese. Historically, most people had put their savings into real estate; declining home prices drove investors to look elsewhere. The authorities encouraged participation in the stock market by loosening restrictions on using borrowed money to trade.

    Related: How a Soaring Dollar Forced China to Devalue Its Currency

    Beginning in mid-2014, investors responded. Barron’s reports that “Local investors recently opened new stock market accounts at a rate of 4.1 million a week, up from about 70,000 a year ago.” Share prices more than doubled. Over the course of a year, margin trading in Chinese stocks soared five-fold, to 2.2 trillion yuan, which doesn’t include considerable “off the books” activity.

    The government recently went so far as to permit people to use their homes as collateral – literally allowing them to bet the ranch.

    This has turned out badly. Though still ahead 67 percent over the past 12 months, the Shanghai composite has retrenched 27 percent since its high in June, wiping out many newcomers and unnerving investors. Some $3 trillion in value has evaporated. Two days ago, the market fell 6 percent in one trading session.

    With plunging financial markets rattling consumers, China must resurrect exports to revive growth. Hence the recent devaluation of its currency. With most emerging markets struggling, and Europe stuck in first gear, China depends on the U.S. We can help… or not.

    Related: China Pushes Yuan Down Further, Fuels Fears of Currency War

    The Fed can postpone a rate increase, thus preventing any strengthening of the dollar and curbing China’s gain from its recent devaluation. The Obama administration can press charges against Chinese exporters of products like tires, steel or solar panels, where U.S. producers claim unfair dumping. Our government can also prevent Chinese efforts to buy U.S. tech firms, another growth avenue.

    In other words, we can play hardball, something that does not come naturally to President Obama. (See: Cuba and Iran.) What should we demand from China? A cyber cease fire, for starters. Though the Obama White House has been reluctant to confirm that Beijing was behind the huge theft of material from the Office of Supply Management, National Security head James Clapper early on connected those dots. That Chinese hackers have stolen enormous amounts of military and commercial secrets from U.S. institutions and businesses is undeniable.

    We should also demand a withdrawal from disputed territories involving our allies. Japan, South Korea and the Philippines have all been bullied by China over the past few years.

    There are many other issues – human rights, counterfeiting, unfair trade practices -- that the U.S. has been willing to overlook, in part because President Obama craved cooperation in securing both a nuclear deal with Iran and a climate pact. Our business leaders, eager to exploit China’s expanding middle class, have encouraged our passivism. At this moment, we should use our leverage to better level the playing field with China. If not now, when?

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  2. DTF296

    DTF296 Well-Known Member

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  3. Willowglen

    Willowglen Lookin thru the glass ceiling & up Stephs skirt VIP

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    Try calling your mortgage company and tell them you're "getting tough on therm".

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  4. WUT7272G7C

    WUT7272G7C Space Chimp

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    Oil Exporters & Caribbean Banks?
    Fuck it.
     
  5. rory

    rory Well-Known Member

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    No doubt about it. China is and will be the biggest challenge, not to the US but all of civilized societies. Any political leader who does not comprehend this is naive.
     
  6. cg256

    cg256 Well-Known Member VIP

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    http://money.cnn.com/2015/04/15/news/economy/japan-china-us-debt-treasury/ for what it's worth, Japan surpassed China this year as our biggest creditor.

    The last thing China wants is for us to pay off any debt. China ties the yuan to US currency using these debts as the bridge. China also owes the United States about 800 billion in bonds that were defaulted on some time ago. I couldn't find a source easily and quickly as the internet is full of US to China debt articles and it wasn't easy finding one with sources. http://juneauempire.com/opinion/2012-05-23/chinas-secret-it-owes-americans-nearly-1-trillion
     
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  7. DTF296

    DTF296 Well-Known Member

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  8. rory

    rory Well-Known Member

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    Now you see why Donald Trump is so popular...people are sick to death of wimps running this nation. China's GDP is 19% based on counterfeiting and copyright infringement. You take that away and they fall into 3rd - behind Japan.
     
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  9. R.P. McMurphy

    R.P. McMurphy Well-Known Member

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    ...i hope a bunch of you just saw trumps 1st townhall meeting. he was and is what americas been looking for. "right after i become president ill get the illegals out of here so fast itll make your head spin" he was fucking awesome. somebody should start a thread about it. 14th amendment doesnt cover anchor babies-trump
     
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  10. R.P. McMurphy

    R.P. McMurphy Well-Known Member

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    ...turn on msnbc they are waiting for another townhall to stat in new hampshire.
     
  11. MyLazyHand

    MyLazyHand Russia and France Know What to Do

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    The question is: would China harm a nation from which it holds $1 trillion in debt?

    I believe they might just do that. China has a recent history of killing millions of its own population during a "reform movement."

    Our country fights two wars in a decade, loses 7,000 dead TOTAL in two theaters, and we cry and cry and cry about the loss when it would've been just a bad day during the Civil War. It amounts to a bad week in WWII.

    We don't have the stomach to fight any longer. It's only a matter of time before we're pushed and we stop pushing back. Hillary doesn't push back.
     
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  12. 922Wine

    922Wine Well-Known Member

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    This thread is funny if only because you're essentially cheering on someone who is one of those who is directly responsible for China's influence by choosing to have his shit made in China rather than giving some textile factory in the country he
    wants to "make great again" the business of making his crap products. Yeah, keep ignoring the fact that he's an enabler of China.

    He really does appeal to people who love not to know or choose to completely ignore the reality of who this douchebag really is. Actions speak louder than words. Are you so hard up for a professional wrestling-like political dumbass that you couldn't care less that he's a God damned hypocrite? It reminds me of the morons who post pics of Obama bowing to the Saudi king because apparently, being in the Carlyle Group with that family, sucking face and holding hands is a much better scenario.

    I also love that he is the quintessential, arrogant loudmouth...yet many of you accused Obama of being "uppity." I guess you're OK with obnoxious Alpha-males when they're a burnt sienna.
     
  13. Willowglen

    Willowglen Lookin thru the glass ceiling & up Stephs skirt VIP

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    One of the Jack Ryan books was about China dumping all the debt at once to destroy our economy and shithammer the market so they and Russia could attack. It was the next book that was going to be made into a movie back in 2002 but it got scuttled because the ending has a Chinese pilot whose brothers died in the war flying a 747 into the Capitol building right after the President swears Ryan in as the new VP and he leaves killing the President, the Cabinet 99 percent of the House and Senate and all of the Supreme Court leaving Ryan who didn't want to be the VP in the first place the new President
     
  14. MyLazyHand

    MyLazyHand Russia and France Know What to Do

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    Yup, I read that one. Pretty much just like 9/11, but the motives were a bit different. Very few people referenced that book when the whole 9/11 finger-pointing was taking place. I believe it was a Japanese pilot, however.
     
  15. Willowglen

    Willowglen Lookin thru the glass ceiling & up Stephs skirt VIP

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    But if the people were all whining "Too soon" for the Cloverfield monster attacking NY can you imagine the outcry if they made a movie about a guy flying a plane into the Capitol bldg?
     
  16. dawg

    dawg In The Dog House Staff Member

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    Yeah lets just antagonize the one country that can crash our economy. Trump continues to prove that he is a clown.
     
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  17. MyLazyHand

    MyLazyHand Russia and France Know What to Do

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    The song by Drowning Pool "Bodies" was released Summer 2001 and was crushed by 9/11 since they couldn't very well play "Let the Bodies Hit the Floor" in the wake of 9/11. Not the best song in history, but it has its merits.

    Most people don't remember the live video of people jumping out of the WTC, or they were fortunate to never see it. That was hard to take.

     
  18. Shortwave98

    Shortwave98 A-Number 1 Banned User

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    I didn't think we liked presidents that golf?
     
  19. Slow

    Slow My name is my name DawgShed News

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    He is speaking a truth that has been needed to be said by someone in a high position for a long time. He will get a nice bump from this. This guy is good for the country right now.
     
  20. MyLazyHand

    MyLazyHand Russia and France Know What to Do

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    China is going to crash no matter what we do.

    All of those ghost cities were built with someone's money, and someone has a big valuation on that useless construction.

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