Politics Trump's Lead Grows In New Poll

Discussion in 'The Howard Stern Show' started by BethSucks, Aug 3, 2015.

  1. BethSucks

    BethSucks Well-Known Member Staff Member

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    With debate looming, Trump has huge lead in new poll
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    AP Photo

    The identities of the 10 Republicans likely to be on stage at Thursday’s presidential debate are coming into focus after another poll on Monday shows Donald Trump running away from the rest of the field and Rick Perry lagging behind his competitors for the final spot.

    A new Monmouth University poll has Trump at 26 percent, easily topping his competitors. The next-closest candidates — former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker — are at 12 percent and 11 percent, respectively.

    Both the new Monmouth survey and an average of the five most recent live-caller polls — Fox News’ criteria for whittling the list of Republicans down to 10 candidates for Thursday night’s debate — reinforce the tiers that have developed since Trump upended the race by surging to the top.

    Beneath Trump, Bush and Walker are five more candidates who are hovering around 6 percent in the poll average (and scored between 4 percent and 6 percent in the Monmouth poll): pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

    Those eight candidates are virtually assured of spots on the debate stage. The race for the final two places is close — but becoming clearer.

    The Monmouth poll has New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 4 percent, Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 3 percent and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 2 percent. That puts Christie and Kasich in a tie for ninth place in the average, at 3.4 percent — ahead of Perry, who is at 2.8 percent.

    It’s not clear whether there will be any new polling between now and Tuesday afternoon, Fox News’ deadline for making the cut. The network won’t comment about its plans, but it seems likely it will release its own poll. Perry, however, would likely need to significantly outperform either Christie or Kasich in any subsequent surveys to steal a place on the stage.

    Some uncertainty remains : Fox News has been vague about which polls it will use; a New York Magazine report last week indicated the network hadn’t even decided which pollsters would meet its criteria for inclusion. POLITICO’s model is comprised of the five most recent live-caller surveys, but it’s possible Fox could impose further restrictions.

    It also could decide that, because whichever surveys it decides to include contain expected margins of error, that the slight differences between Christie, Kasich and Perry merit declaring it a tie and admitting 11 candidates instead of 10. The 12th-place candidate, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, is more than a full point behind Perry.

    “I suppose Fox hoped that a top tier would emerge by the time the first debate rolled around,” said Patrick Murray of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “But based on current polling, there’s no good rationale for arbitrarily selecting a top 10.”

    In fact, the Monmouth poll shows few Republicans support Fox’s choice. Given a choice of Fox’s approach, a debate with all the candidates, or two back-to-back debates with split fields, only 23 percent think there should be a debate just for the top 10, with the other candidates relegated to a forum earlier in the day. The plurality, 45 percent, support two back-to-back, randomly assigned debates — while 29 percent think all the candidates should debate at one time.

    But for now, the race, like Thursday’s debate, is defined by Trump. He earns more support from male Republicans (32 percent) than from women (20 percent), and more from tea party supporters (35 percent) than from those who say they don’t support the tea party (20 percent). The poll found no difference in support among those respondents who say they are Republicans and others who are Republican-leaning independents.

    “Republican support for Donald Trump just continues to grow with no clear sense of who his constituency really is,” said Murray.

    The Monmouth University poll was conducted July 30-Aug. 2, surveying 423 self-identified registered voters who identify as Republicans or lean toward the GOP. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
     
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  2. Tipsey Russell

    Tipsey Russell VIP Extreme Gold

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    he needs to ditch the red hat

    it's not a great look
     
  3. wife is a whore

    wife is a whore Stripped of POTY for butthurting staff VIP

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    GOP is doomed. I can't believe how stupid they are. It is a fucking sideshow and depressing as hell. They might as well forgoe an election and hand the country right over to the Clinton cronies, so the can start ripping us off right away.
     
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  4. Alisonsbankacct

    Alisonsbankacct Out to lunch.

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    Serious question - if Trump is reserved and "presidential" acting during the debate, does that hurt him with his supporters?

    Do they only like it when he is cowboying it up?
     
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  5. Slow

    Slow My name is my name DawgShed News

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    Consolation is atleast Biden looks to be jumping in and will probably beat out the wicked witch.

    Also, Trump will bail and give his support to whoever plays nice with him.
     
    wife is a whore likes this.
  6. ltd86

    ltd86 Racist Banned User

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    Trump2016!!!

    I hope once elected he shows no mercy to you malcontents who did not support his campaign!
     
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  7. Roland Schwinn

    Roland Schwinn *Likes reported as of October 14, 2016 Gold

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    I don't think it would hurt him. I also don't think it will hurt him if he keeps to the cowboying, which is what i think he will do. What will really make him stand out, is if he is well prepared and backs up shit he says with stats and shit, presents plans and shit. If he doesnt do that, then i don't think it matters how he acts.

    But what do i know? :jj:
     
  8. wife is a whore

    wife is a whore Stripped of POTY for butthurting staff VIP

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    They are fucking morons.
    I thought Trump woukd bail, up until he did the financial disclosure.

    I like Biden, but he is too prone to put his foot in his mouth to be the lead guy. I still think that if McCain took Biden he would have won and there would be a much better political climate in this country. After the divisiness of Bush we needed something to bring the country together, not push us farther apart.
     
  9. ltd86

    ltd86 Racist Banned User

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    #45:

    [​IMG]
     
  10. John Sterling

    John Sterling Well-Known Member Banned User

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    Does his cap look like that because he has a humongous head, or is he wearing an oversized cap so he doesn't mess up his comb over too much?
     
  11. Tinman

    Tinman Well-Known Member

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    Wouldn't it be great if there was a forum for all you fruit loops to congregate in.

    :right:
     
  12. ltd86

    ltd86 Racist Banned User

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    alisonsbankacct liked your post - time to reevaluate everything
     
  13. Snotty

    Snotty My Snothand be strong!!! VIP Gold

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    Good..............It'll drive Ving nits...............
     
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  14. yahoo

    yahoo Well-Known Member

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    I have some conservative friends who love Trump because he knows how to shove it to the establishment.

    The man IS the establishment. He admits to pouring money into multiple candidates to manipulate the system.

    But, hey, he'll say anything so that gets my vote.

    Pure stupidity on parade.

    By the way, this assures Jeb Bush the nomination. He will get the sane vote, which will be a minority of primary voters but just enough to push past the bushel of crazies who will split the other votes.
     
  15. Slow

    Slow My name is my name DawgShed News

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    i know right. the title of the thread was so misleading that i was blindsided with political talk after clicking on it. if only there was a way for me to not be forced to enter these threads :rolleyes:

    I think Biden gets the Obama rub to be cool with minorities. Plus he gives off that creepy uncle, old coos hound vibe that helped bill clinton win over the masses. The who would I want to have a beer with thing. After Obama I don't see any righties joining hands with the left no matter who gets in.
     
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  16. Roland Schwinn

    Roland Schwinn *Likes reported as of October 14, 2016 Gold

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    Yup.
     
  17. ltd86

    ltd86 Racist Banned User

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    That would make sense if the opposite weren't true. Trump is the one candidate that's uniting the party.

    Anyone that's attacked by Krauthammer, Rove, National Review, George Will, et al is definitely not part of the establishment
     
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  18. N Copter

    N Copter Shot Dead Banned User

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    Impossible.

    He was doomed when he said nasty things about Mexicans

    He was doomed when he said shit abot McCain

    He is doomed by the debates even before they have happened

    He is doomed by (fill in the blank)

    [​IMG]


    Where is that CUNT from like two weeks ago who was swearing he was dead after he said shit about McCain?
     
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  19. yahoo

    yahoo Well-Known Member

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    Case closed.
     
    wife is a whore likes this.
  20. wife is a whore

    wife is a whore Stripped of POTY for butthurting staff VIP

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    Hang yer hat on Trump. Are you brainstorming excuses now for when he gets crushed in the general election or you just gonna pull an all nighter on election night and write stuff down between slamming yer cock in a kitchen cabinet.