What Industry Analysts Said About Howard Stern Renewing with SiriusXM in 2010

Discussion in 'The Howard Stern Show' started by Benjamen, Nov 19, 2015.

  1. Benjamen

    Benjamen Well-Known Member

    Reputations:
    255,087
    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2010
    Messages:
    8,290
    Likes Received:
    51,908
    After reading articles by various journalists who are speculating on Howard's importance to SiriusXM in 2016 and beyond ("SiriusXM needs him more than he needs them" is the underlying takeaway in most of these suspiciously pro-Howard predictions), I thought I'd revisit what three experts said about his renewed contract in December of 2010.

    On the day of his announcement that he'd signed on for another five years, Fortune asked three industry analysts to weigh in. Although the value of his contract hadn't yet been disclosed, all three correctly predicted a pay cut from $100 million a year to between $60 and $80 million a year. ("He's going to get a lower total number, but they're not going to disclose it because they don't want to bruise his ego.") And two of them correctly predicted that Howard would be working fewer days as a result of the reduced salary ("For Stern, it's probably important to face the world and say you didn't take a big pay cut. ... So, maybe he goes from four to three days, which will be good for SIRIUS because ultimately, they'll be paying him less.")

    It's interesting that these quotes came out in December 2010, three months before Howard's unsuccessful $300 million lawsuit against his employers for unpaid subscriber bonuses, and two-and-a-half years before the AGT ratings dive confirmed his severely diminished popularity:


    [​IMG]

    "We would guess that maybe 1 to 2 million subscriptions came into Sirius five years ago because of Howard Stern and that would basically be close to awash with what they're paying him. If he left and he lost all of those subscriptions, you'd have to lower subscriptions, but you'd also have to lower revenues and costs, which would also be close to awash in terms of earnings.

    But in reality, you wouldn't lose all those subscriptions. You'd lose a fraction of what he brought in because they've been around five years and they've probably found other things they like on satellite radio."

    -- David Joyce, Miller Tabak



    [​IMG]

    "I don't think Howard Stern is as important as he was five years ago, especially to Sirius, which has such a broad content lineup. But I do think Sirius wants to make sure nobody else has him, and they'd much rather have demand for Howard just sort of peter out over the next five years than just have a big newsworthy event that just gives people an excuse to cancel."

    -- Barton Crockett, Lazard Capital


    Fortune found this analysis the most fascinating: Stern is so expensive, the savings from him leaving would pretty much offset the loss of subscribers.

    And they concluded: But for someone of Stern's stature, the hit to Sirius XM's prestige over the loss might've been too much for CEO Mel Karmazin to handle. [​IMG]


    Five months later:

    Howard Stern Vs Mel Karmazin: It's War!

    [​IMG]


    Two years after Howard's renewed contract announcement:

    Mel Karmazin Leaves Sirius XM Radio

    [​IMG]

    Somebody JPEG these two fortune tellers and ask them for their crystal ball predictions for 2016!

    https://www.linkedin.com/in/barton-crockett-2724247

    https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-joyce-766a0619
     
    Guacamole, Furc, drewjube and 7 others like this.
  2. Big Biscuit

    Big Biscuit Well-Known Member

    Reputations:
    87,240
    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2012
    Messages:
    4,049
    Likes Received:
    4,348
    Robin, what's he saying?

    Good stuff, thanks for posting. Uncanny, in their accuracy. The economic "laws of diminishing Howchie" in play then and now even more.
     
    John Mahlin and Benjamen like this.
  3. MrWarmth

    MrWarmth ADORABLE DEPLORABLE Gold

    Reputations:
    175,712
    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2010
    Messages:
    90,564
    Likes Received:
    41,069
    Somehow the word PRESTIGE and HOWARD STERN in the same sentence sounds a bit rediculous.

    [​IMG]
     
    OV, John Mahlin and Benjamen like this.
  4. Penelope

    Penelope VIP Extreme Gold

    Reputations:
    83,454
    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2015
    Messages:
    4,673
    Likes Received:
    11,322
    Wow, great stuff as always, Benjamen.

    This is the kind of sentence that makes Wiggy's head explode:

    :giggle:
     
    bznick, Petal, Benjamen and 1 other person like this.
  5. Vincenzo69

    Vincenzo69 Well-Known Member

    Reputations:
    69,363
    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2015
    Messages:
    14,182
    Likes Received:
    17,823
    AGT's ratings going to shit has nothing to do with Howards popularity. AGT has a completely different demographic than the Stern show. That's like saying The Hangover dvd had bad sales because it women 65+ weren't buying it.


    Also, anyone who has taken any intro to business course knows companies have balance sheets. If you subtract the lost subscribers you also have to subtract the $60 mil Howard makes plus the staff's salaries which is another $3-7 mil
     
  6. vaporizer

    vaporizer Well-Known Member

    Reputations:
    44,849
    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2015
    Messages:
    3,593
    Likes Received:
    7,804
    I'd much rather a show from the guys at Prestige Worldwide than Hamptons Howie.
     
  7. Rob0729

    Rob0729 Well-Known Member

    Reputations:
    77,700
    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2012
    Messages:
    11,273
    Likes Received:
    15,842
    The thing that Howard does have going in his favor is that Sirius really has no clue what his audience size really is and his impact on their revenues. It is all guess work other than the online app. His only hope is that John Meyer is too chicken shit to believe their own internal testing, focus groups, and guessing is accurate and afraid his subscription base is far higher than he thinks. Then he might not want to be the guy who dumps Howard and loses millions of subscribers.

    I tend to doubt it. I am guessing that they know Howard doesn't have the juice anymore and are lowballing their offers.
     
    TheLACritic likes this.
  8. Benjamen

    Benjamen Well-Known Member

    Reputations:
    255,087
    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2010
    Messages:
    8,290
    Likes Received:
    51,908
    What about relocating production from Los Angeles to NYC and paying him a reported $15 million a year? Did that too have nothing to do with what they believed was Howard's popularity and ability to attract a desirable demographic?

    Just because Howard failed to meet expectations doesn't mean he shouldn't have been accountable for them to begin with. His "demographic" didn't follow him to the show, and one out of three of AGT's regular viewers stopped watching when he joined the cast. How can you spin that to say it's not indicative of a diminished popularity?
     
  9. Vincenzo69

    Vincenzo69 Well-Known Member

    Reputations:
    69,363
    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2015
    Messages:
    14,182
    Likes Received:
    17,823
    I've always said I hated HOWARD on AGT and that it hurt his radio show because he turned his show into an AGT infomercial. The producers at AGT were idiots for thinking Howatd Stern, a guy whose demographic is 40 year old Italian plumbers in Queens, would be the darling of Midwestern housewives everywhere.


    As for accountability - that got taken care of when Howard got his skeletor ass fired.
     
    Guacamole and Benjamen like this.
  10. Benjamen

    Benjamen Well-Known Member

    Reputations:
    255,087
    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2010
    Messages:
    8,290
    Likes Received:
    51,908
    It sounds like we're in agreement then.
     
  11. Bentknee

    Bentknee Well-Known Member

    Reputations:
    8,729
    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2012
    Messages:
    1,257
    Likes Received:
    2,121
    What about the fact that Howard's last appearance on Jimmy Kimmel's show lost to a rerun of Fallon, his appearance during Letterman's farewell week was the lowest rated of the group, and the time he was on Letterman before that he lost to a rerun of Leno? Is that enough to convince you that his popularity has waned? Or people that watch late night TV not in Howard's demo?
     
  12. joyceface

    joyceface Queen of Everything VIP

    Reputations:
    48,867
    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2011
    Messages:
    9,317
    Likes Received:
    8,889
    So he'll take a paycut and come back to do one show a week? :dontknow:
     
    Benjamen likes this.
  13. Kool

    Kool Well-Known Member

    Reputations:
    32,192
    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2012
    Messages:
    8,623
    Likes Received:
    8,829
    Finally some analysts making fckn sense
     
    Benjamen likes this.
  14. Pigsaw

    Pigsaw Well-Known Member

    Reputations:
    20,707
    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2012
    Messages:
    2,576
    Likes Received:
    5,325
    Or maybe one show a month! One show of two interviews (pretaped) and two hours of phony phone calls.
     
    The Jackie chair likes this.
  15. the G-man

    the G-man Well-Known Member

    Reputations:
    43,742
    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2015
    Messages:
    4,368
    Likes Received:
    10,583
    I think he sticks to 3 shows a week but diminished hours (probably 2 or 3 hours per day and possibly prerecorded). Staff layoffs will occur as well, with the savings going into Howards pocket.

    And remember: Sirius doesnt set his salary. 112 INC does that. So he can always say he didn't get a pay cut.
     
    The Jackie chair likes this.
  16. bznick

    bznick Hustling, Flowing, and Hating! Gold

    Reputations:
    221,065
    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2011
    Messages:
    4,101
    Likes Received:
    15,940
    Howard after reading that and Beth bringing home ANOTHER cat. [​IMG]
     
  17. Vincenzo69

    Vincenzo69 Well-Known Member

    Reputations:
    69,363
    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2015
    Messages:
    14,182
    Likes Received:
    17,823
    Nobody thinks Kimmel is funny which is why he loses to reruns of ninja infomercials.


    God couldn't miracle Kimmel to higher ratings. If ABC execs had a clue he'd be gone already
     
  18. Vincenzo69

    Vincenzo69 Well-Known Member

    Reputations:
    69,363
    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2015
    Messages:
    14,182
    Likes Received:
    17,823
    Probably.


    And you all will listen.