Yeah, Bill Barnwell and I both agree that the Chiefs fucked up on that 4th and Goal from the 1 in the first quarter. Why don't you gum on that fact for a while, Gramps. http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/10249866/bill-barnwell-nfl-playoffs There was a moment when Reid hurt his team's chances of winning, but it's not the point most remember. Instead, the moment when Reid really cost his team with a subpar decision came hours before that fateful fourth down. It would be fair to have forgotten it, given all that happened afterward, but Smith's first long completion of the game in the first quarter found an open Bowe, who rumbled all the way to the 2-yard line after the catch for a 63-yard gain.4 After advancing the ball to the 1 on second down in between one incomplete pass and two Kniles Davis runs, Reid sent out Ryan Succop and kicked a 19-yard field goal to give the Chiefs a 10-7 lead. This is the simplest example of the go for it/kick the field goal debate, and it's also the one that leans heaviest toward the side of attempting to score a touchdown. The break-even rate justifying going for it in a vacuum is 43 percent; throw in the added benefit of likely pinning the opposing team inside the 1-yard line even with a miss, and the break-even rate gets even lower. Brian Burke pegs it for this situation at 34 percent. Reid might have been more conservative because Charles was out, but he could have had Nile Rodgers at running back and succeeded 35 percent of the time with a yard to go. He couldn't possibly have known it then, but his team ended up really needing those four points. Do not ever fucking question my knowledge of football again.